Anatol Lyabedzka: There will be no imitation of Ukrainian and Georgian developments in Belarus :: Charter'97 :: News

Focusing their main priority on establishing communications within the country, the single pro-democratic presidential hopeful Alyaksandr Milinkevich`s team is also building international connections. The first foreign trip was undertaken by Milinkevich himself. He visited a large international conference in Prague, Forum-2000, at the invitation of the former Czech president Vaclav Havel. Then Anatol Lyabedzka, leader of the United Civic Party (UCP) and head of the National Committee, which is the opposition`s shadow cabinet, visited Kyiv.

Lyabedzka told Ukrainian partners and public about the situation in Belarus in the run-up to the presidential election of 2006 and informed them about changes in the camp of the Belarusian opposition following the recent Congress of Pro-democratic Forces, the key event that resulted in the election of Milinkevich as a single pro-democratic challenger to Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The UCP leader also held political consultations in the Ukrainian capital. He met with members of Verkhovna Rada and representatives of political parties and ruling authorities.

"I can only say that there is an understanding of what should be done and readiness to provide support to us," said Lyabedzka after his meetings in Kyiv.

The Belarusian opposition has quite a lot of supporters in Ukraine`s political environment. Many in Kyiv believe that the achievements and ideals of the "Orange Revolution" could become a good example for Belarusian democrats.

However, the latter seem to be changing their attitudes to the revolutionary developments in the neighboring country and their results. Emotions give place to reason, and Belarusian oppositionists are getting aware that simply imitating what was done in Ukraine will not work in their country. There are no similar conditions and resources in Belarus.

According to the head of the National Committee, "there will be no copying of Ukrainian and Georgian developments in Belarus. Romanian scenarios are more likely for Belarus. A bloodless revolution is impossible in our country. The situation is more complicated."

Lyabedzka does not rule out that Lukashenka can use force to suppress a democratic revolution. The UCP leader makes this assumption on the basis of what was said by the Belarusian ruler in an interview with a Moscow television network this July. Lukashenka said that he was determined to defend his people, his government and his presidential power, even with arms in his hands and alone, if need be.

The single democratic candidate`s team has a rather tough attitude toward Lukashenka. While Andrey Klimaw, the businessman who tried to stage his own revolution in Belarus this March, was ready to guarantee personal safety to the country`s president and even leave him his residence in Drazdy, the suburban area where he lives now, the united democrats are not so kind. They announced recently that they would set up a public tribunal to investigate the high-profile disappearances of Lukashenka`s political opponents. And it is already clear who is going to be the main suspect in this tribunal`s proceedings.

However, this potentially dangerous - for Lukashenka - topic of purportedly politically motivated disappearances has not yet achieved any more or less serious repercussions among the general public in Belarus. It is quite possible that the opposition`s new attempt to bring it up with public opinion may not reach expected results. In fact, that was the case in the run-up to the presidential election of 2001 when the opposition failed to make it a resonant issue for the public.

The opposition`s failures in that respect are, to a large extent, a consequence of efforts so strenuously exerted by the state propaganda machine. Official media downplay these disappearances to the level of myths used by the opposition to fool its supporters.

Getting back to Lyabedzka`s trip to Ukraine, it has to be said that the Belarusian opposition, as pointed out earlier, does not tend to copy revolutionary scripts from other countries. The local democratic forces rather try to learn from someone else`s mistakes. This applies to the funding of political campaigns, in particular. Now there are a lot of discussions in Ukraine about the involvement of the notorious Boris Berezovsky in Yushchenko`s presidential campaign. An ad hoc commission in Verkhovna Rada has established that Berezovsky gave as much as $21 million for that campaign. This funding scandal, together with a government crisis cased by the dismissal of the Tymoshenko cabinet, is a painful attack against the new Ukrainian president`s image.

According to Lyabedzka, the Belarusian opposition is not going to use the fugitive Russian oligarch`s money or have any dealings with him.

"But we are studying Berezovsky`s traces in Ukraine very carefully to be prepared for different courses of developments," said Lyabedzka upon his return from Kyiv.

He also added that he had information about contacts between Berezovsky and representatives of the Belarusian authorities: "We have information that Berezovsky tried to establish cooperation with the Belarusian regime. And we do not rule out that he may try to launch a business and political project in Belarus."

But the opposition`s attitude would be quite different, if any foreign organization provided funding for the independent Belarusian media. Lyabedzka says he would welcome that.

Foreign trips undertaken by Belarusian oppositionists have always been a target for state propaganda. Nevertheless, it is obvious that a new wave of such trips is inevitable now. The single pro-democratic candidate needs a positive reaction from external forces to the process of the opposition`s consolidation. Perhaps, it can help change Belarusian society`s viewpoint on the country`s relations with the democratic world. Thanks to propaganda efforts, this issue is now limited to "aggressive ambitions" of the West.

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Anatol Lyabedzka
Born in 1961...Graduated from the history faculty of Minsk Teachers` Training University and the law faculty of Belarusian State University...Was a member of the 12th and 13th Supreme Soviets (Belarus` parliament until late 1996)...Has been leader of the United Civic Party since 2000...Was elected to head the National Committee of Pro-democratic Forces (shadow cabinet of the united opposition) in October 2005.