Presidential Election: Spring or Summer? :: Charter'97 :: News

Political analysts are actively discussing the possibility of the upcoming presidential election to be held earlier than expected: in early or mid-spring instead of summer as originally thought. Is it better for the Belarusian authorities to press forward with an earlier election? Would the opposition be ready for it?

The next presidential election in Belarus has to be held before July 16, 2006. According to the country`s central election commission, this follows from the Constitution. Article 81 reads that the election of the head of state should be held "not later than two months before the previous president`s term of office expires." Lukashenka`s inauguration took place on September 20, 2001, which is why the next election has to be held not later than July 19. Accordingly, the deadline for an official decision by the House of Representatives to call it is April 19, 2006.

While speaking in an interview with a government-run newspaper in the end of August, Lidziya Yarmoshyna, the chief election official, assumed that the election would be held on July 16, 2006. A number of analysts and politicians immediately interpreted her assumption in the following way: Yarmoshyna indirectly admits that the election will be finalized in one round, because holding a second round after July 20 would be against the Constitution. It looked like the outcome of the election had been already predetermined.

However, Mikalay Lazavik, the central election commission`s secretary, dismissed their interpretation as unfounded: "Neither the Constitution nor the Electoral Code say that President should be elected two months before the previous head of state`s term of office expires. An election can in one round or in two rounds. Or it can be a repeat election. Moreover, Ukraine had even a third round, which was not provided for in its electoral regulations."

A legal explanation behind the ongoing discussion about the possibility of an earlier election is also Article 81 of the Constitution. According to its clauses, a presidential election is held not later than two months before the previous president`s term of office expires and called not later than five months before that date. Not later means it can be certainly held earlier.

Thus, from a legal point of view, the next presidential election can be held in the end of March or in the beginning of April, for example. Syarhey Haydukevich, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, member of the House of Representatives and potential presidential candidate, shares this opinion: "If we get back to the Soviet era, we can recall that elections were usually held in March or in October." According to him, he already told his headquarters prepare for a probable election date in March.

"The election can be indeed called earlier than five months before the incumbent`s term in office expires. But in any case three months are needed to complete all the preparations for the election," comments Lazavik.

But what if the preparations are already going on? However, the central election commission denies that.

Political analyst Andrey Suzdaltsaw is one of those who are speaking about an earlier election. According to him, Lukashenka has a special meeting with close subordinates in the end of November and decided to move the election date from July to March.

"The decision to nominate Alyaksandr Lukashenka as a presidential candidate is most likely to be passed by an All-Belarusian People`s Assembly, to be held in winter. Interestingly enough, a number of events connected with Russia are scheduled for March. Belarus will get an S-300 air defense system from the neighboring country and put into operation four compressor stations of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline," says Suzdaltsaw in an interview with RFE/RL.

How can the incumbent Belarusian leader benefit from an earlier election? The analyst says that the authorities keep in check the opposition situation by and large but they cannot do anything about decisions by Moscow, which "has not yet clearly confirmed that it will support Lukashenka."

However, the Moscow factor can be hardly too important for the Belarusian authorities while setting the date of the next presidential election. The Kremlin is allergic to revolutions in post-Soviet countries, and in the worst case, for Lukashenka, it would just remain neutral. (More on this issue in the article by Andrey Fyodaraw in this issue of The Viewer.)

But Suzdaltsaw believes that the Belarusian regime may be also afraid that the West can use some powerful and unexpected technologies. And finally, more independent broadcasting to Belarus is going to be available starting in the beginning of 2006.

That Minsk really fears a tandem between the Belarusian opposition and the West can be seen in controversial amendments to the Criminal Code recently. The threat of imprisonment is used in them to curb political activities by Lukashenka`s opponents.

After all, an earlier election means a shorter period of mobilizing informational, administrative and financial resources of the state. A psychological factor should be also taken into account: fearful of a revolution, Lukashenka wants to be done with the election as soon as possible and start a new term in power.

Another argument for the assumption that the presidential election can be held already in spring is an increasing amount of Lukashenka`s self-publicity in frequent trips around the country and numerous public appearances. One could observe a similar situation in the run-up to last year`s referendum.

On the other hand, an earlier election would not allow the opposition`s single presidential hopeful to properly promote himself among the general public. Two months since the election of such, Alyaksandr Milinkevich still remains a poorly known politician nationwide.

Still, his team says they are ready for an earlier election. Alyaksandr Dabravolski, deputy manager of Milinkevich`s campaign, points out that there are advantages and disadvantages for both Lukashenka and Milinkevich in the early election.

The opposition has better chances of taking more of its supporters to the street, because university students are on holidays and older people are on vacations in summer. From this point of view, a summer election would be more advantageous for the authorities, especially as it would be preceded by two large-scale public festivals extensively covered by the state media: Victory Day on May 9 and Independence Day on July 3.

Alyaksandr Dabravolski

Born in 1958...Graduated from the radio physics and law faculties of Belarusian State University...Was elected member of Mikhail Gorbachev`s "perestroika" parliament, USSR Congress of People`s Deputies, in 1989...Was a member of the Inter-Regional Group of Deputies, the Congress` only group advocating drastic democratization...Was a member of the 13th Supreme Soviet (parliament) in Belarus...Headed the United Democratic Party, the first registered opposition party in the country, from 1991 through 1995...Has been deputy chairman of the United Civic Party since 1995.