Recently for the first time Gazprom has officially recognized that a last-year Ukrainian scenario of cutting off gas could be repeated. The monopoly has warned that the contract for gas deliveries expires on December 31, and called the negotiations position of Belarus irresponsible. Until now the leadership of Gazprom and Russian government claimed that the sides would be able to agree. But the monopoly started to get ready for cutting off gas for Belarus in advance. The Deutsche Welle asked the head of Mizes Center Jaraslau Ramanchuk to comment on the situation:

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Observers are noting harsh political divisions between Moscow and Minsk in the issue of prices of Russian energy resources delivered to Belarus. There are reasons to say that a new “gas war” could start in the “union state of Belarus and Russia”. A well-known Russian political analyst Andrei Piontkovskiy coments to the bilateral relations:

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Germany`s government said Thursday the gas dispute between Russia and Belarus is above all a bilateral issue and will not affect Russian gas deliveries to Europe. Russia and Belarus are currently involved in complex negotiations over the 2007 gas price for Minsk, which has been paying a discounted rate until now. The dispute is reminiscent of a gas spat with Ukraine early this year when Russia briefly suspended gas supplies, affecting consumers in Europe.

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The European Union`s energy chief, fearing a disruption of gas supplies to EU countries, urged Russia and Belarus on Thursday to resolve their bitter pricing row to avoid any problems in early 2007.

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The head of Hrodna city branch of the Union of Poles in Belarus Mieczyslaw Jaskiewicz has been charged with violation of the Article 339 of the Criminal Code of Belarus (hooliganism). The Charter’97 press-center has been informed about that by the UPB activist Andrzej Poczobut.

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A crisis situation concerning Russian oil and gas costs for Belarus has been commented to Radio Svaboda by the leader of the Russian party “Democratic Union” Valeria Novodvorskaya. “Oil and gas costs were a great luck and a present of history to Belarus. When two tyrants, Putin and Lukashenka, maintained good relations, things looked black for the Belarusian opposition. Now when they are at a row, and Putin has decided to get rid of Lukashenka through gas and oil costs, there is a chance the situation in Belarus would change. Those who vote for Lukashenka in Belarus, love him out of opportunistic reasons. This all can result in the dictatorship’s downfall”.

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Against the background of problems with gas transit through Belarus and oil deliveries to Belarus Russia has found another corridor for oil export. Yesterday Ukrtransnafta CEO Igor Kiriushin stated that Ukrtransnafta, Transneft and TNK-VR have signed an additional agreement to the agreement of 2004 on cooperation and coordination of actions in oil transporting through the territory of the two countries. As a result, as said by Mr. Kiriushin, oil pumping through pipe Brody-Odessa to Yuzhny port is to be increased to 9 mln tons a year (as compared with the current 3.7 mln tons). The talks on increasing the volume to 12 mln tons continue.

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After a week of negotiations with two dozens of printing works, a chairman of the executive committee of the United Civil Party Syarhei Alfer stated that “there are no legal opportunities to print in Minsk informational materials of the UCP candidates for deputies”. Even those who cooperated with democratic candidates in the parliamentary campaign in 2004 refuse to help.

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Anatoly Lebedko, leader of the United Civic Party (UCP), has complained that he was denied permission to hold election rallies in Minsk. The politician, who is running for the Minsk City Soviet, on December 19 applied to the city authorities for permission to hold several meetings with voters to inform them about the social, economic and political situation in the country, promote the party`s program and the European Union`s new strategy toward Belarus, the UCP press office said.

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Russian government can impose gas export duty for Belarus, RIA Novosti informs with a reference to a source in the government. If the offer of Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller would be accepted, gas for Belarus would cost $260 per cu. m., and Russia would additionally receive $1.3 billion.

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