Is Russia Provoking Crisis in Belarus? :: Charter'97 :: News

Energy collision between Mink and Moscow may result over this year in the economic model crises and, possibly, in the power crises in Belarus. This opinion has been shared by the Belarusian independent experts interview by the Vremja Novostey. They consider that the construction period of the economic model, once called the market socialism by Alexander Lukashenko has elapsed. Soon the country will have nothing to do but to pass to economic reforms.

Over the last years, the Belarusian government has considered economic stability to be its major achievement. Local functionaries have been speaking about the “economic miracle” and the have even used the “European tiger” terminology thus comparing their country with the rapidly developing Asian economies. “Notorious stability of the Belarusian economy is the stability of a drug-addict , receiving cheep junk. Today the society has come back to the situation of 1994 when being scared of the reforms it elected Lukashenko for the presidency,” said Leanid Zaika, the head of the “Strategy” Belarusian Analytical Center to the Vremja Novostey. He also stressed that the gains of Belarus were based on the Russian cheap resources.

Today’s dependence of Belarus on Russia remains considerable. “Russia accounts for 48% of the Belarusian merchandise turnover, including 100% export of Belarusian- made foodstuffs. The dependence on Russian energy resources is almost all-round”, remarks Yaraslau Ramanchuk, an independent Belarusian economist. According to his estimations, the gas contract signed a couple of minutes before the New Year with allowance made for the gas costs raise , customs’ duties growth, and Beltransgaz shares selling will result in 400 million dollars losses for the Belarusian economy. The damage caused by the changed conditions of Russian oil deliveries which is expected to comprise from 2 to 4 billion dollars depending on the result of the negotiations will become even more considerable for Minsk.

“The gas and oil cost hike will affect the Belarusian output net cost which, in its turn , will result in the GDP reduction. Even the most optimistic scenario can’t avoid termination of the “European tiger” growth”, said Alyaksandr Patupa, the head of the Belarusian Entrepreneurs Union.

To the experts’ mind, the major error of the government is the refusal of economic reforms. Mikhail Marynich, the former Minister for International Economic Relations, stressed ,”The Belarusian management hoped that the subsidies would be unlimited and was eating them away without improving the economy .” The government overused the luxury of cheep oil and gas. Now it faces the threat,” considers Stanislau Shushkevich, the former speaker of the Belarusian Parliament. According to Leanid Zaika, decline of the Belarusian ruble and deterioration of the financial status of Belarusian enterprises is soon to come. Alyaksandr Patupa supposes that “the decline of the economy will result in wages decrease and “social programs reduction”. As Mikhail Marynich said, all the above-mentioned “will seriously affect the position of the present power; the dissatisfaction of the electorate with its actions will grow.”