Yarasalu Ramanchuk: Lukashenko will have problems even with his electorate :: Charter'97 :: News

Yarasalu Ramanchuk, the head of the Mizes scientific and research center, analyses possible outcomes of the trade war escalation between Russia and Belarus in his Interview to the German Wave. “The trust in those who are in power is going to fall and, to my mind, in this situation , reduction of the living standards is not far off. Consequently, Lukashenko is going to face problems even with the electorate who supported him during his last elections”, considers the economist.

-- How would the possible breakdown of the Customs’ Union with Russia affect the Belarusian economy?

-- Actually, the breakdown of the Customs’ Union means for Belarusian goods a switch to the same customs procedure as for Poland , Lithuania and Germany. If Russia treats our goods similarly to its treatment of the meat from the Ukraine, the wine from Georgia, and Moldova , it will result in around USD 1 billion total losses for Belarus.

-- You have touched, say, financial aspect, but if to look at the matter from the human viewpoint , how will such perspective , if realized, affect common Belarusians who produce all those goods, exported to Russia?

-- When the goods stop crossing the Russian- Belarusian border so intensively as at present, it will certainly result in the Belarusian ruble instability .That will be followed by the outflow of the population deposits from the banks . And people who actually do not have rich choice in their moneysaving, in protecting their income will start behaving habitually: they will start investing into buying dollars and euro. The people’s trust in those who are in power is going to fall and, to my mind, in such situation the reduction of living standards is not far off. Consequently, Lukashenko is going to face problems even with the electorate who supported him during his last elections.

-- Over the last years Lukashenko succeeded in preserving fairly favorable conditions for the Belarusian directorate at the expense of Russian energy deliveries at rather reasonable prices. How will the directorate respond if such conditions disappear? Is it possible for a certain Fronde to appear among them?

-- I think, it is the directorate that bothers Lukashenko more than any other social layers. This oil collision, this exaltation was mostly aimed at preventing the emergence of opponents among the directorate. Because when the situation deteriorates the people will realize that it is impossible to continue living that way. And dissatisfaction will start growing among the manufacturers who are constantly trading with Russia, who have been receiving free resources independent of their financial performance. The people interested in changing the situation will appear, moreover, in case of the growing tendency of Russia’s support.