Mikhail Marinich: «Society is expecting changes» :: Charter'97 :: News

“The today’s society has been expecting changes. There are many worthy people both among officials and democratic public who wish the situation in Belarus to change as quickly as possible and its political system to turn to democracy. It is nothing but a myth that everyone in Belarus has been afraid of everything and has been dreaming only of not to be involved. That is not true. Day after day, especially this year, their expectations are going to expand,” Mikhail Marinich, former minister for foreign economic relations of Belarus, deputy of the 12 Supreme Soviet, extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassador of the Republic of Belarus declared in his interview to the Charter’97 press –center.

In 2001 Mikhail Marinich resigned because of his disapproving of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s policy. In 2004 he was imprisoned for 5 years on forged reasons. Under the influence of the European Union and the USA he was released on probation in 2006.

-- Mikhail Afanasyavich, the people today are trying to make out what Belarus has in store for itself due to the oil and gas clash with Russia, how the latter will influence their life. Taking into account your great experience of a great state figure, administrator, how do you estimate the present situation in Belarus?

-- The situation is far from being simple. The people’s well-being is going to deteriorate. Significantly. We shall have to considerably tighten our belts. And, definitely, people will be made to think over their destiny, over their future. Now they only start realizing their present state. There are the first stages to be considered –the coming fuel price hike, the communal services price increase that has already taken place. These facts are impressive, up-and –coming. Now we are spending our last- year- formed potential. The understanding is to come after the first quarter or half-year.

I had been witnessing the decline of market relations in Belarus. If you remember, in the mid nineties a market legislation was worked out which contributed to the international public’s confidence which resulted in the International Monetary Fund decision made on the “stand by” credit granting to Belarus but after the referendum 1996 the authorities of the president became too expanded, Belarus started curbing its reforms and the present situation is a logical outcome of the policy pursued by those who have been in power, and firstly, by head of the state.

-- Lukashenka has admitted this year to be dramatic hasn’t he?

-- A similar situation was faced in 2001 when I resigned. Frankly speaking, I very well realized the outcomes of such policy and, to the best of my abilities, tried to prevent the country from falling into the precipice. The whole economy depended on huge free –of-charge subsidies, provided to Belarus by Russia. Actually, the authorities underestimated this and thought that it would remain forever; I mean the life under more or less normal conditions at the expense of Russian taxpayers. You know very well that the fixed assets depreciation in Belarus amounts to over 80%, there were and there are no investments, all Russian subsidies have been directed to mending holes in the economy and not to its development, to say nothing of expenditures on the Lukashenka’s “projects, like building ice palaces which was not of primary importance for our economy. Today we are reaping the fruits of this shortsighted policy.

I am sure that the Belarusian economy collapse may take place this year. There are no hopes for the authorities to change their behavior. There are no devices, no market relations, and no investments, which could have made the way out of the present situation. Certainly, it is impossible to change everything right away. But only the integration of the society, only restoration of democracy can help to overcome the crises. This can’t be implemented without a political reform, without participation of all forces, firstly, of opposition.

-- How serious are the disagreements of the Belarusian and Russian authorities?

-- The crisis of Lukashenka’s power is obvious. Russia promised its transfer to the market relations long ago and it’s not a secret to anybody. Belarus had enough time for preparation to such changes, but Lukashenka haven’t committed anything. Ukraine and other countries made right decisions and found the potential to overcome the difficulties, which are going to face Belarus in the coming years.

Hopefully, everything said by Lukashenka concerning the Russian authorities will help the Russian authorities to view the situation in Belarus differently, to realize that there are serious and professional persons among the opposition. Among the authorities there are people who are sick and tired of fear and humiliations. There are enough professionals in Belarus who are ready to work for reforms and improvement, for honest and predictable relations with Russia and the European Union. Today you see that after quarrelling with Russia Lukashenka is flirting with Europe. But that is not willfully .The authorities are moving around trying to find the ways out. But believe me, no matter how insistently Lukashenka is flirting with the West, he can’t be trustworthy, and everything depends on the Belarusian people. The economic and political background has resulted from the inferiority of the present authorities’ policy.

-- How do you estimate the international community’s response to the Russian-Belarusian energy clash?

-- To my mind, Europe has clarified the situation initiated by Belarus. Russia withstood all the attacks. I consider that the consultation between Putin and Merkel and other European leaders point to the fact that the first figure to be blamed for this crisis is the Belarusian government. The conflict has been settled but not only the Belarusian government is among the losers. It couldn’t see the point and didn’t understand that Russia’s one leg had already stepped into the WTO that it had been transferring to the market economic relations and Belarus had remained off board, standing still, expecting that socialism will never end. Unfortunately, it is the people who will suffer from the authorities’ failures.

Europe represented by the PACE leader Rene van der Linden, who had recently visited Belarus, expressed his hope for certain advancements in the Belarusian policy, but I am sure that there is nothing new to be expected from the Belarusian regime in the near future. Today the Belarusian propaganda tried to show that the first steps had been supposedly made by Europe towards Belarus. But the real steps can be relied on only after releasing the political prisoners. Then a certain talk can be made. The round-table discussion will be then possible with participation of the Belarusian authorities, opposition and the European leaders, the discussion of the possible liberalization of the legislation. It can, certainly, ameliorate the relations. Now it is useless to expect that Europe and Russia will bet on this power.

-- How do you regard actions of the Belarusian government? And are there any really professional, progressive-minded reformative policymakers in the present-day Belarus?

-- Today the society is expecting changes There are many worthy people both among officials and democratic public who wish the situation in Belarus to change as quickly as possible and its political system to turn to democracy. It is nothing but a myth that everyone in Belarus has been afraid of everything and has been dreaming only not to be involved. That is not true. Day after day, especially this year, their expectations are going to expand.