Yaroslav Romanchuk: «Belarus is not a country of the 21st century» :: Charter'97 :: News

The recent dispute between Russia and Belarus almost left all of Europe without gas supplies and has received much coverage in Western media. The resistance from Belarus, which has stayed loyal to Russia for many years, came as a surprise to many. The feud with Minsk, which came just a year after the dispute with Ukraine, has once again shattered Russia’s image as a stable energy supplier. GT phoned Yaroslav Romanchuk, a political analyst in Belarus, to talk more about these issues.

Q: How would you assess the confrontation between Russia and Belarus? Do you think Lukashenko was right to take such a hard stance?

A: We in Belarus knew that the government would make such a decision. Sergei Sidorovsky made some preliminary statements. We knew that Putin and Lukashenko were holding phone conversations.

These events were sudden only for the international community. This turn of the development has scared everyone around us. Lukashenko played on the nerves of Russians and Europeans. The gas dispute was expected several months before it occurred, so it came as no surprise to Russia.

This all was just a farce and served the interests of certain figures. You should not think that Lukashenko wouldn’t allow his people to be blackmailed. No, Lukashenko wanted to build an image that somebody out there wants to subdue Belarus, and that he is a savior. It is now known how Lukashenko conducted the negotiations with Russia in reality.

Q: Do you think this will somehow challenge Lukashenko’s position in Belarus?

A: It is hard to say whether the gas dispute will become a reason for his removal. The US reiterated its decision to keep sanctions against Belarus in force. I hope that these developments will bring an end to the incumbent regime. Moreover, after this feud Russia has to deal with new problems and Europe has become more demanding.

It has once again become clear to Europe what problems Russia and Belarus together may pose to Europe, and the friendship between these states is rather fragile.

Q: But much is being said and written about the rapid growth of Belarus’ economy…

A: This is just an illusion. The government says that the Belarusian model of economic development is something special, but they do not want to recognize that it is not really working. There are very few affluent people in our country, and over 3 million people live under the poverty line. However, official reports are absolutely different. Every fifth man in Minsk is poor. The life around us is very expensive. They are talking about the Belarusian model as an already established perspective. But everything is quite the contrary. These wrong-headed policies destroy physical and psychological health and deter progress in the long run. This goes beyond the parameters of a normal human life. Belarus is not a country of the 21st century.

Q: How do you think Russia’s entry into the WTO will impact Belarus’ politicized economy?

A: Russia, which is the biggest trade partner for Belarus, is set to join the WTO. With that, Belarus’ economy is likely to encounter problems even with its neighboring markets. Otherwise, our country could have also acceded to the WTO. We have resources to achieve the required standards. But the biggest problem in our country is the absence of the rule of law. Now everyone sees that the legal system is under the sway of the presidential government and until this is remedied, Belarus’ economy will not develop.

By Lela Kedelashvili, Georgian Times