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Belarusian policymakers and experts do not actually believe in the possibility of improvement of the relationship between the official Belarus and the West after Lukashenka’s interview to the German newspaper “Die Welt” but, nevertheless, they consider that the chance of the Belarusian foreign policy vectors’ bias mustn’t be missed.

Leader of the democratic forces of Belarus Alyaksandr Milinkevich does not overestimate the latest ‘pro-European’ declarations of A. Lukashenka and treats the feedback of certain Western policymakers with understanding. It is curious to know that on January 26 A. Milinkevich gave the interview to the same “Die Welt” newspaper, which had interviewed Lukashenka the day before.

A.Milinkevich considers that Europe might have been scared of the pipeline switch-off in winter. “What the opposition had warned of has happened”, the Belarusian policymaker remarked in his interview to the correspondent of the ”Belorusi i Rinok” newspaper. According to him, stability and security are very important to the West. Today the military security is being less spoken about being substituted by the economic security. And Belarus definitely plays an important role in this context.

“The West would like even the present-day dictatorship country to behave in a proper way. That is why they are looking for contacts with the authorities”, the policymaker states. Meanwhile, he considers, the Western leaders do not believe Lukashenka to get changed radically and to become a democratic-minded person. They are trying, if to put it metaphorically, “to seduce” him. “ Being pragmatic and logical, they see that the country does not have any future without reforms. The regime does not have any future either. And they reasonably hope that the Belarusian regime is going to start the reforms. But, I guess, that the today’s authorities are not ready for them”, A. Milinkevich supposes.

On the whole, according to A.Milinkevich, it is good that the European policymakers are trying to dismantle the’ Chinese or Berlin’s wall”, erected by the Belarusian regime around its own country. It is important, however, for any political cooperation to be possible only on condition of implementation of the so-called “12 terms of the EU”. ”Let the Western policymakers say to the present Belarusian authorities: “Welcome to Europe, we are waiting for you. But we are also waiting for you to make definite steps, which are obligatory”. Otherwise, the policymaker is certain, “ well- experienced Belarusian authorities will continue pursuing their vicious habit of giving promises and never keep them”. The policymaker also underlined that Europe would always support the independence of Belarus and the” firmness of the continental boarders.”

A former speaker of the parliament, leader of the Belarusian socio-democratic Gramada Stanislau Shushkevitch skeptically responded the latest initiatives regarding the development of the dialogue between Belarus and the West.

“The answer has already appeared at the Russian sites. The headlines are striking the eyes: ”Lukashenka has betrayed Russia.” And this is a primary response of the neighboring country to the actions of the Belarusian authorities”, remarked the policymaker. But, according to him, there are not many reasons for the West not to believe the Belarusian ruler, because they have also got rather a bitter experience of the relationship with the present Belarusian authorities and, secondly, Shushkevitch is certain, that even the Western policymakers themselves won’t let the Belarusian authorities use their declarations on changing their international political priorities for blackmailing Russia. Because in the today’s situation the leaders of European democratic countries are interested in good relations with Russia, maybe, more than anyone else. “I guess, Lukashenka sang off-key”, the ex-speaker considers.

Political scientist Andrey Fyodarau states that too much negative has been said and done towards the West by the Belarusian authorities recently for really serious actions to be expected.

“But nevertheless the general situation has slightly changed. The state of things in the Eastern direction has considerably worsened. That is why we can’t exclude that the continuation of attempts for establishing contacts with the West”, Fyodarou remarked.” But as far as the conditions of the West are concerned, it is unlikely, that the Belarusian authorities are ready to follow them. Certainly they would like to cooperate, to get investments, to be acknowledged and accepted. But without changing anything in their local policy with regard to democracy and human rights as well as economic reforms they are unlikely to succeed in that.”

According to the analyst, only if the Belarusian party surrenders first, the Europe will make a counter- step. “We have been witnessing the recent example of the Libya`s ruler Kaddafi, who has got much more sins that the Belarusian authorities. And nevertheless, after he became more submissive in certain issues the West responded symmetrically. We can’t consider their relations as normalized but in comparison with their previous state it is a colossal breakthrough. And a similar scenario is highly probable in the relations between Belarus and the West”, A. Fyodarau is certain.

The first steps made by the Belarusian authorities, the expert considers, might be the release of all the political prisoners, “the prisoners of conscience.” ”It is an unquestionable condition, the issue which must be undisputable as far as its implementation is concerned. The actions directed to liberalization of economy, termination of the most odious laws and decrees have to be taken and then the investments might come into the country”, Fyodarau added.

G. Barbarich,“Belorusi i Rinok”