Is dialogue between opposition and authorities feasible? :: Charter'97 :: News

A range of issues on feasibility of joint actions with the authorities has challenged the opposition lately. Firstly, it was a declaration of Zmitser Bandarenka, coordinator of the Charter’97. Then the letter to Lukashenka with proposition of the joint celebration of the Belarusian People’s Republic anniversary was written by the organizing committee of the 25 March action headed by Vintsuk Vyachorka, leader of the BPF and, finally, an open letter of leader of democratic forces Alyaksandr Milinkevich to Lukashenka appeared. What do these step mean? What are they aimed at? Is it just PR or is it an attempt aimed at maintaining an actual dialogue with the authorities? These questions were addressed to Zmitser Bandarenka, coordinator of the Charter’97 and Igar Rinkevich, Alyaksandr Kazulin’s lawyer, by Valer Karbalevich, leader of the “Expertise of Freedom” program on the Radio”Svaboda”.

Zmitser Bandarenka: “A couple of days after my initiative leaders of the BPF party began to make steps in the same direction. And then it was Milinkevich ,who made a step forward. It means that the crops have ripened and those approaches quickly became the reality of the Belarusian political life.

The situation has changed. The talks, that the West will put pressure at Lukashenka and the conditions for negotiations with authorities will be set up, were heard among the opposition circles. But it so happened that strong economic sanctions were imposed by Russia. And those actions totally changed the political landscape in Belarus.

Historical experience shows that at certain stages many dictatorships made steps, which contradicted the logics of their existence. The Belarusian regime has been affected by the radical changes in the economic situation. Thus, chances appear for the dialogue between the opposition and authorities”.

Igar Rinkevich: “Yesterday I had a substantial talk on this issue with Alyaksandr Kazulin. He had just heard about “the Milenkevich’s reverences towards Lukashenka” on the Radio ”Svaboda”. Alyaksandr Kazulin considers it to be the game under the Lukashenka’s rules. The dictator has to be approached only in terms of the two equals without giving in. The Belarusian- Russian conflict showed that Lukashenka can give up only under hard pressure.

The letter of Milinkevich is a manifestation of his political and human weakness. It is an extra trump card into Lukashenka’s hands, whose power is based only on conflicts and blackmail.

I think that Milinkevich’s letter is more a declaration of the human rights defender than of a policymaker, who tried to play the part of a tough leader. It is a tactical step directed at arranging the 25 March action to be held without repressions.

It would be desirable that after 25 March Lukashenka faced the ultimatum. Yesterday Alyaksandr Kazulin submitted the appeal to the general public prosecutor for the latter to give a legal estimation of the citizen Lukashenka’s appeal on falsification of the presidential elections and started a corresponding criminal lawsuit.”

Karbalevich: “Have those initiatives challenged the authorities? It is hard to imagine that the authorities will start any political liberalization. In this case, what are presumable political dividends for the oppositions in the context of those initiatives?”

Bandarenka: “We are not going to let the political prisoners alone. Their release remains the condition for the talks to begin both for the opposition and the European Union, on the one side, and Lukashenka on the other side.

We also suggest Lukashenka to be tested for patriotism. We say: let us celebrate 25 March together and show our will for democracy and democratic changes.

By the way, today I have read at several sites that the leadership of the BSDP (G), i.e., the Kazulin’s party, declared their readiness to negotiate with the authorities. I want Mr. Rinkevich to comment on this message. And we also wish Mr. Kazulin to remain strong- willed and to trust his partners. People remember him and struggle for his liberation”.

Rinkevich: “Twelve years have been enough for testing Lukashenka. As far as the BSDP (G)’s viewpoint on this issue is concerned I would like to mention that no consolidated decision has been made by the party’s leadership. It is a personal decision of Mr. Maroz”.

Karbalevich: “May it so happen that these initiatives will turn to be more harmful than useful. They may cease Moscow’s intentions to maintain a dialogue with the Belarusian opposition. At least, it seemed that the position taken by Milinkevich during the oil-gas crises promoted the dialogue. On the other side, such steps of the opposition may push the European Union towards canceling the sanctions against Belarus, towards negotiations with the official Minsk without any of its steps towards democratic changes”.

Bandarenka: “First of all Lukashenka is to start the dialogue with the opposition. And then the opposition will tell Europe if it is possible to start talks with the official Minsk.

I am not aware of any dialogue between the Belarusian opposition and Moscow. Putin never demanded to release Marinich, Kazulin though they are considered as pro-Russian policymakers. The economic sanctions were imposed by Russia only for incorporating Belarus. Yesterday the ”K barieru” programme was televised where Lukashenka was blamed by Zhirinovsky for his unwillingness to get incorporated by Russia. And Zhirinovsky is well-known as a mouthpiece of the Kremlin”.

Rinkevich: “The opposition have also lacked in strategic thinking, in employing experts for scenarios development and resources search. It seems to me that the letter of Milinkevich is another shortsighted step.

Certainly, it is necessary to create favorable psychological conditions for the talks. When before the talks the opposition continues insisting on the non-legitimacy of the president and the president continues repeating that the opposition has no public support, we can hardly expect any positive outcome. However, on the other side, we can’t neglect the problem that since 1996 the anti-constitutional processes have been going on in the country.

Now about the Russian direction. Kazulin considers that when a certain Belarusian policymaker is able to build the relations with Russia better that Lukashenka, it will be extremely useful to Belarus.

It is during my New Year meeting with Alyaksandr Kazulin when he said that the opposition delegation should have taken part in Belarusian-Russian negotiations on energy supply issues. Kazulin also told that a year spent on waiting for the authorities concessions, the passivity of the opposition had disillusioned the people”.

Karbalevich: “Both my interlocutors mentioned that the opposition had to become a subject of the talks between Belarus and the European union and Belarus and Russia, but how can Belarus make others take it into consideration. Do the letter of Milinkevich and other initiatives of the opposition strengthen its positions for participation in those presumable negotiations or weaken them?”

Rinkevich: “Kazulin considers that Lukashenka won’t give up until that balance of forces occur. For this the opposition has to become stronger, to increase its resources.
As far as the European Union’s position is concerned I am sure that it will be satisfied with the authorities’ symbolic steps forward and will agree to negotiate with Lukashenka.

There is another important issue. The letter of Milinkevich appeared after Lukashenka in his interview with the Reuters denied the possibility of satisfying the 12 requirements forwarded by the European union. Then what is here to be discussed? We need another format for actions of the opposition, European Union and Russia”.

Bandarenka: “The opposition has such important representative as Milinkevich who entered the highest world political league. He regularly meets the European Union leaders and is on friendly terms with some of them. And the recommendations of the European Union were made with consideration of the opposition’s points of view. And the latest talks of Milinkevich in Brussels proved that assumption. Leader of the European Parliament Hans-Gerd Poettering declared that the position of the European Union has remained unchangeable: first Lukashenka ‘s steps towards democratization and then the beginning of the dialogue.”