Bagdankevich: Belarus may face the archcrises :: Charter'97 :: News

Under present conditions the National Bank of Belarus should devaluate the Belarusian ruble at a higher rate than it actually does. This point of view was expressed by former chairman of Board of the National Bank Stanislau Bagdankevich.

According to him, the Belarusian ruble rate may remain stable in the near future; there are enough opportunities for that. However, Bagdankevich considers that the problems in the economy are growing and the ”monetary authorities” should review the rate policy to avoid serious problems in future. “Today it is high time, maybe, slowly, without scaring depositors to start gradual devaluation of the Belarusian ruble at a higher rate. The Belarusian ruble devaluation will enable to decrease import and stimulate export”, S.Bagdankevich remarked.

According to him, such actions are required due to the current economic situation. “The thing is that the authorities do not want to admit the crises. They are planning to postpone the crises borrowing USD1 billion from China, USD 1.5 billion from Russia, USD 1 billion from Austria. But it’s not the way out. You can postpone collapse of the economy through borrowings but it is an unhealthy development. The problems mustn’t be stored they must be solved”, S.Bagdankevich stressed.

The former head of the National Bank doesn’t share the government’s optimism regarding foreign standby assets of Belarus. ”Healthy standby assets of the country are formed in case import exceeds export and the balance is accounted as reserve. But under conditions of the budget deficit no healthy foreign standby assets can be attainable”, S. Bagdankevich remarked.

According to him, now the reserves are formed through the National Bank buying currency from commercial banks, which they have got in the form of loans. “Banks borrow currency, sell it to the National Bank and then they finance the economy in rubles. And more than half of these borrowings are short-term, that is why the banks’ risk exposure is very high”, the agency interviewee explained.

He considers that it is high time for transferring to the new economic policy of the state, based on real market transformations. “The country’s authorities say the crises has been overcome. What crises? The prices have not been raised, yet. The crude oil price per ton is USD 100 lower than the world oil price. Even for gas we are paying USD 55 instead of 100 USD for 100 cubic meters. Then what have we overcome? We have avoided collapse”, S. Bagdankevich remarks.

He believes that if the measures are not taken the Belarusian economy is to face serious problems in 2008 and in 2111 they will turn into the “archcrises” when Belarus will pay world prices for imported energy resources.

The official USD/Br exchange rate has increased by 0.2%( from Br 2.140 to 2.145). As of 1 January 2008 the official USD/Br exchange rate is to remain within plus-minus 2.5% to the official exchange rate as of 1 January 2007.