Yaraslau Ramanchuk: Negative balance can result in devaluation :: Charter'97 :: News

As the ministry for statistics and analyses reported yesterday, the negative international trade balance of USD 1 billion 450.7 million has been formed over the first half of the year.” The negative international trade balance may not affect the economic life for a long time. If the negative balance results in deterioration of the payment balance, then the economic situation will deteriorate considerably thus causing the devaluation”, a well-known economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk expresses his opinion in the interview with the Charter’97 press-center.

A considerably long retaining of the Belarusian ruble rate under the deteriorating state of affairs with the energy resources, according to the economist, was made possible through the “Beltransgaz’ stocks selling and external borrowings.

“Nevertheless the growing negative international trade balance along with the absence of investments and the underdeveloped stock market is certainly to result in the payment balance deterioration. Our enterprises are short of the working capital. The prices for resources have risen considerably. The government does not allow the labor force redundancy and wages lowering. That is why the available additional financial resources may be wasted by the end of the year”, the expert supposes.

Furthermore, according to the economist, the outside lenders will decrease the envisaged volumes of financing due to the grown risks. Even now the ministry of finance experiences difficulties with the governmental bonds distributing, forcing the banks do that. That will mean for the outside lenders that the stability of the Belarusian financial system is not like that represented by the Council of Ministers and the National Bank.

“Last year the balance was positive, and the negative part of the balance has increased by 4%of the GDP. After analyzing our economy the IMF mentioned the growth of the negative balance among the essential risks of the Belarusian economy” the economist recalls.

Thus, the pressure over the Belarusian ruble has been growing; the decreased ruble- to euro- rate is noticeable even now. The country is going to face the foreign currency deficit. The devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, if the national Bank fails to bind the bulk of cash, is inevitable. That is to result in the livings standard decrease (we will be made to live the earned life), but will improve the negative balance.

Yaraslau Ramanchuk advises to follow deposit rates attentively. If the banks do not increase the interest rates correspondingly to ruble rates, then the depositors’ money will start financing the failures of the government in the financial policy. And the reasonability of making bank deposits will become doubtful. The devaluation mainly depends not on the facts but on expectations. The devaluation expectation is present in the country.