USD 1.5 billion credit for Belarus being the same as USD 70 billion for Russia :: Charter'97 :: News

The Russian political scientist and expert in the sphere of the Belarusian- Russian relationship Andrei Suzdaltsev states that the major problems of the economic relations between Russia and Belarus despite of the yesterday’s , 30 July, meeting of both countries’ prime-ministers Mikhail Fradkov and Syargei Sydorsky have remained and their settling has been delayed and has become more complicated.

As far as the credit is concerned, a full set of problems has appeared. First, the credit volume is unprecedented-over 4% of the Belarusian GDP. If proportionally compared to the Russian GDP those 4% would turn into USD 70 billion. Actually, USD 1.5 billion credit granting needs to be adjusted to a long- ago- adopted Russia’s budget “, Suzdaltsev explained.
“Secondly, the general attitude of the Belarusian authorities with respect two the new conditions of economic relationship between Moscow and Minsk is obvious to the Russian authorities, he continued. Certainly, in the first half of 2007 the Belarusian management was striving to annul the Agreement on Gas Deliveries of December 2006 and the Agreement on Oil Deliveries of January 2007.Then the idea of making Moscow surrender, revise the agreements and return to the subsidizing mode of the 2006- year format meaning the symbolic gas price and “Belarusian oil off-shore” within the Union State of Russia and Belarus” appeared.
According to the expert, such like behavior of the Belarusian party”could not but put the Russian authorities on their guard”.
“Presently, in Moscow they realize that Belarus is not going to pay the new gas price in 2007, Suzdaltsev states. Besides there is also a viewpoint that the credit granted by Russia is never to be paid back”.
With respect to the above-mentioned the expert stressed that the negotiations, actually, had tackled not the Belarusian debt for gas restructuring and the supposed credit guarantees but the conditions making the payments evasion unfeasible for Belarus.
“And the conditions are the political issue which goes beyond the prime- ministers’ authority, thus making the outcomes of the S. Sydorsky’s meeting with M.Fradkov negligible, Suzdaltsev says. The responsibility of the USD 0.5 billion Belarusian debt restructuring (actually, setting- off) and free-of-charge assistance (credit which is never to be repaid) may only be taken by the head of the Russian state”.
“But to agree with Lukashenka is next to impossible due to complete depreciation of Lukashenka’s authority and his traditional extremely free attitude to the word given, Suzdaltsev mentions.
Today Lukashenka is a true bankrupt … with all the consequences following. The parties are not ready for public development of the crises, they will continue unlimited and senseless talks which may easily flow to autumn and then to December when they are likely to result in a traditional “gas war”. We are at the brink of a full-value deadlock”. The interlocutor summed up.