Gas conflict versus system crisis :: Charter'97 :: News

Another gas conflict between Russia and Belarus was less intensive than the previous one but its essence remained the same; Russia is not going to relax its economic pressure and continues to keep to its economic and political aims. Meanwhile, the Belarusian authorities are trying to solve economic problems by propagandistic methods.

Economically and politically weak Belarus is favorable for Russia. Russia has learnt to get everything it needs and hold Lukashenka on a short string .And it will continue to get its probable benefits without aggravating the situation but forcing the Belarusian authorities to surrender. That may result in depreciation of the Belarusian state assets and then the country may be put on sale without the Belarusian authorities’ participation.
In January 2007 Belarus managed to come out of the conflict with minimal losses. By the government’s efforts really preferential conditions for transferring to a higher gas price were forced out .The country have have the deferred payment opportunity and preferential gas price of USD 55 per cubic meter for the first half year.
If the situational approach were normal such grace period could have been used for regrouping of the available funds and starting the economy restructuring. But the existing political system in Belarus simply hasn’t got any mechanisms of flexible response to changeable world prices for energy resources.
Since then Belarus has not made a single attempt for the future debt repayment.
It is hard to explain why, because the super favorable market conditions for the Belarusian goods had occurred of late years. Cheap oil and expensive petrochemicals for export allowed getting real super-profits. How they were distributed and in which pockets remained is the greatest mystery. It is only clear that the oil-gas manipulations have not anyway improved the life of Belarusians.
Instead of looking for the way out through economic reforms the authorities have been currently making even greater debts which are soon to be repaid. Mortgage covered credits (pledging of profitable enterprises is also foreseen here) are being negotiated. Doubtful allies such as Iran and Venezuela have been searched for thus complicating still destabilized relations of the official Minsk with the outside world and the command system of the economy management has been preserved by all means.
By great efforts directors of the Belarusian enterprises have actually managed to preserve their enterprises and to survive despite of the hopelessly outdated equipment, absence of civilized trade opportunities, constant pressing of the regulatory bodies and necessity of adjustment to ideological whims of the regime.
Today the main load of the crises situation created by the authorities is to be imposed on them. They have already been instructively demanded of being thrifty notwithstanding the hopelessly high power consuming manufacture. The management of enterprises has to be responsible for the non-liquidity of the output stock. They will be publicly ashamed and the criminal lawsuits will be brought against them for non- implementation of unrealistic demands. All that is to be added to the aggravated circumstances caused by the gas price-hike.

If Belarus is not in position to pay today’s not high gas price then all the optimistic official declarations and forecasts are groundless. It means that the real economic state-of-affairs is far from being as nice as the official mass media have described though the truth has been perfectly hidden from the populations.
But the authorities of Belarus can afford spending hundred millions on the repressive forces, their own security and other trifles having nothing to do with the attributes of a truly powerful state.
The separation line between the realists and the propagandists has become visible today. More and more often we hear the truth about the situation in the country. The prime- minister has recently announced that 30% of the enterprises in the country are non- profitable.
There is a way out and it has been known for a long time: liberalization and transfer to the democratic form of management which is grounded and secured by the free election. If the authorities do not agree with that than it means that they realize that for 13 years of the total control over the society they have failed to become a really democratic power. They are simply afraid of the open competition.
The gas crises, staff reshuffling at the top management level, thousands of law enforcement staff and militia engaged in fighting the democratic youth manifest that the authorities lack governing resources and their replacement is inevitable.
Neither Russia no Europe is to be good judges of our internal affairs .They have their own interests. But it is nobody else but the Belarusian people themselves who are to decide their r own fate.