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Natallia Radzina: I believe Lukashenka not to stay in power

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Natallia Radzina: I believe Lukashenka not to stay in power

If the Belarusians ignore the "elections", people's consciousness will change.

Polskie Radio had an interview with Natallia Radzina, editor-in-chief of charter97.org, on whether it was possible to call the election farce a people's will expression and what would happen next.

- Belarus is to have elections, although they've started earlier. It's just falling from lips: the elections of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. Are these elections without a choice?

- There are no elections in Belarus. We see another show with Aliaksandr Lukashenka and a few candidates, acting as stooges. They are freaks. They are neither politicians, nor big men in public and political life of Belarus. Now early polling, traditionally falsified, is already on. Students, soldiers are forced into it.

- Do you strongly resent such ballot?

- Sure. No civilized and democratic country in the world has such a high percentage of voters. In Belarus it makes up almost 30%, although early polling is made for those who have a serious reason not to appear on the E-day. Could you imagine that a third of country leaves Belarus on the E-day? It is impossible. It is clear that it is a conscious activity. People are deliberately forced into taking part in voting, being put under pressure. Students are threatened with an exclusion from universities, teachers and public-sector employees - with dismissals. Military men are just ordered. They take an early polling, it is almost not being observed. Vote counting is not supervised and, accordingly, it can be considered a fraud one.

- They also use "carrots": they say, in case with students, they grant Friday as a day off.

-It is one of "carrots". But I remember my experience. When I was at the university we were also forced into such voting. By the way, I did not do that. They threatened us with exclusion. I did not go to a polling station commission and was not excluded. Most likely it's a lie. It is impossible to exclude all the students, if there are a lot of them. For one or two it works, but not for all of them. The Belarusians themselves will ignore the elections. Boycott strategy is popular among voters. People understand that it is useless to be a hero in the show. All democratic forces in the country take a stand - they've refused to take part in this farce.

- What will happen after the elections? The President is not going to change...

- If the Belarusians boycott the elections, I am sure it is to happen, people's consciousness will change. People will understand that they can run the situation. Empty polling station commissions will prove that the society refuses to accept Lukashenka. It is clear that the situation is complex, repressions cause fear, but it is an easy step to ignore elections and everyone can afford it. It cannot be followed by serious repressions. It could be the ground for future optimism.

- Do you really expect empty polling station commissions?

- I'm certain about it. They will maintain a semblance, roundabouts are possible, but voting turnout will not exceed 30-40%. It is for sure.

- Has Lukashenka changed over the past few years?

- How is it possible? Dictators do not change.

–And his maneuvering...

- This is his permanent action. He's been always maneuvering between Russia and the West. Now he tries to do the same.

- How do you, as a person who was behind bars and had to leave the country, take the situation, when Lukashenka gives flowers to Merkel, becomes "the dove of peace" during negotiations in the Donbas?

- What "the dove of peace"? He's a clown!

- On Twitter Radosław Sikorski, former Foreign Minister of Poland and former parliamentary speaker, speaks for a resumed dialogue with Belarus.

- It a usual mistake of European politicians. Radosław Sikorski surprised me a lot. He knows well the dialogue with Lukashenka's regime. He and former German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle arrived to Minsk on the eve of the presidential elections in 2010, they promised Lukashenka a financial support if they would be relatively smooth. That was strange. Leaders of democratic Europe arrive in the country and shake the dictator's hand. It was a betrayal of the democratic future of Belarus. But, as I usually say, I do not doubt in Lukashenka. He himself spoiled everything. We saw what happened after 2010. Despite all promises and liberalization, everything resulted in tough dispersion and mass arrests on December 19.

- We remember all this blood. It all started before polling station commissions were closed.

- And then the very Radosław Sikorski wrote an article and called Lukashenka a looser. But now he speaks for a dialogue with Belarus. With whom? If it is Lukashenka, then it will result in events of December 19, 2010.

- But the West continues relations with Lukashenka. Peace talks on Donbas are held in Minsk. Does this mean Lukashenka's victory?

- I'll repeat - I believe in Aliaksandr Ryhoravich Lukashenka. Let's see what happens after the elections.

- The West often criticizes opposition for no leader in opposition: yes, we know Lukashenka, but who will run if he is not? There are thoughts that the Belarusians, perhaps, need a strong hand.

–I do not understand what leaders you are talking about. There is Andrei Sannikau, former presidential candidate and leader of the European Belarus campaign; in fact he won the elections in 2010. Independent observers, who counted votes at polling station commissions, proved that. Today we have Mikalai Statkevich, former presidential candidate, who spent 5 years in prison , and who is a moral leader in Belarus. Do you think it is not enough? These are not the all trustworthy politicians here in the country. It the myth, created by official Belarusian propaganda that exists in the West, about no candidate, but Lukashenka. It is impossible. It is like saying there is no one, but Putin in Russia. Any dictatorships create such myths.

- How long can Aliaksandr Lukashenka stay in power?

- Frankly speaking, every time I hope it ends tomorrow. If we have no hope, we will have no power to resist. Therefore, I hope it will happen soon enough.

- If elections complied with democratic standards and norms, would Lukashenka be elected?

- In case of six months of free election campaign, Lukashenka has no chances. - If freedom of speech, freedom to gather, and an opposition's access to mass media are honoured, he will lose. During the election campaign of 2010, candidates were given a half an hour of air-time. - And it's all the same. The opposition has no access to television. There have been no changes in the country. The West is welcoming Lukashenka. What are we talking about? Only one thing was made: he released political prisoners. But they have not even been rehabilitated, not to mention the fact that the country remains under dictatorship. Human rights are being severely violated. If there are free elections, Lukashenka will surely lose. You ask how much time Lukashenka has. Today's disastrous economic situation should be taken into account. Every day we are informed about mass dismissals, price increase, low wages, and devaluation. It is a hard situation for Lukashenka.

- On the other hand, "a Ukrainian issue" helped him.

- Sure. But the war in Ukraine is not so positive to him. Russia is not able to give him as much money as it used to do for 20 years - the reason he still stays in power. He is a talentless leader, who failed reforms in economy and who retain power by force. This repressive apparatus exists at the expense of Russian money.

-At the end of our conversation - what do you think of the history with a Russian airbase in Belarus?

- A typical blackmail in Lukashenka's style. - He has no choice. If Russia wants an airbase here, it will get it. In this case, he cannot lock horns with Russia. Today he tries to bargain something for an alleged non-location of this airbase. Believe me, if Lukashenka stays in power, there will be a Russian airbase in Belarus. Today he is a puppet. No matter how he behaves and acts, he is a Putin's puppet.

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