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Aleksandras Matonis: I Have No Doubts Russia Will Place Iskanders In Belarus

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Aleksandras Matonis: I Have No Doubts Russia Will Place Iskanders In Belarus
ALEKSANDRAS MATONIS
PHOTO: DELFI

The Lithuanian military expert recommends not having illusions about Belarus’ neutrality.

Belarus is Russia’s closest ally militarily in the Western direction, and no matter what is said by some people that the “president” of this country is independent in his policy in the security sphere, such statements could not be treated seriously, a Lithuanian military expert Aleksandras Matonis believes.

Russian troops are moved to the Belarusian border. Lukashenka has stated: we have a joint army with Russia at the Western border.

“Russians often say that new NATO contingents are deployed at Russian borders. It should be underlined that it happens primarily near our, Belarusian borders. We are seeing that and are taking adequate measures without any fuss or excitement,” – Lukashenka stressed.

What NATO countries should expect at this part of the border, and what the role of Belarus is in the situation connected with the security in the region. Delfi.lt has asked for comments a military expert Aleksandras Matonis. The main thing the expert attracted attention to was: one should not have illusions about Belarus’ neutrality, despite all Lukashenka’s statements.

– On the one side, NATO drills are taking place, and on the other Russia is moving its troops to the Belarusian border, talks are held on possible placing of Iskander systems in Belarus. Lukashenka states that the army at the Western border is common. How all these actions should be treated, and what does it mean for the security of the region?

– One should probably start with the statement that there was not and could not be any illusions concerning Belarus’ affiliation in the sphere of security. Belarus is a member of a collective organisation, which center is Russia. Belarus gives Russia its territory for troops’ placement during exercises, and for permanent placement. We know that military aviation is also deployed on the territory of Belarus. In other words, Belarus is Russia’s closest ally in the Western direction, and no matter what is said by some people, that Lukashenka is independent in his security policy, such statements could not be treated seriously, I think. As long as the Collective Security Treaty with Russia is in effect, Belarus is viewing all questions faced by Russia in the same vein.

Secondly. Many times Russian military exercises included participation of the Belarusian army. One should recall the Breakthrough manoeuvres, when a scenario for deblocking of the Kaliningrad through Suwalki Corridor was drilled, that is, variants of actions from the side of the Belarusian territory and the Kaliningrad Region were worked out. There was a number of major military drills Belarus was taking part in not only territorially, but by its military resources. That is why one should always remember, it’s a fact to keep in mind by us and other NATO allies: Lithuania borders on Russia not only along the Neman River and by land with the Kaliningrad Region, it is also more than 600 kilometres of border with Belarus, which militarily is also a border of the Russian Federation.

– There have been reports about possible deployment of Iskander systems in Belarus. What is your evaluation of such an opportunity?

– The systems Iskander-M are expensive, but they are produced still. I do not know at what a pace, but all statements that such systems are to be deployed in the Kaliningrad Region have been confirmed. Statements that such systems could be placed on the territory of Belarus should be considered as seriously probably. It is another question when, but I would not doubt that they are going to be there.

– Summing up your words about A. Lukashenka, one should have no illusions about his neutrality, should one?

– Certainly so.

– To what extent Belarus and the Keliningrad region are united militarily?

– It is not only an integrated system of interaction, it had been tested many times. As I have mentioned, drills, including the ones with participation of Belarusian military forces, took place many times. And these exercises have been aimed at increasing interaction in military operations in the Western direction – the Baltic States, Poland, that is, NATO states. In addition, one should take the well-developed military infrastructure of Belarus – high roads, railway system, air bases, airfields –seriously.

– Now military drills are being held in Poland and the Baltic States, NATO contingent in these countries is growing. How seriously could it influence build-up of the Russian contingent near the Alliance borders?

– One should probably remind the chronology. Anakonda, Saber Strike, which are taking place at the territory of the Eastern Europe countries simultaneously, are not the reason of reinforcement of Russia’s military presence in the European part, but a consequence of it. In this case, first there was an egg, and then a hen. Unfortunately, it should be viewed in the context of a proverb “Don’t have thy cloak to make when it begins to rain.” The rain began long ago. In fact, for a decade Russia is increasing its military presence in the Kaliningrad Region, the Western Military District systematically, reformed military forces, especially reinforcing the Central and Western Military Districts. And only after a rain, “a thunder and lightning” aimed against Ukraine, NATO has taken certain measures. And again, it should be noted that acting in a politically correct way so far, we are just moving to the territory of Lithuania and some other countries rotationally deployed forces only. There are no permanent bases. When the question of deploying a standing battalion in the Baltic States is to be solved, which is to amount to one brigade in total, militarily it would mean a force which is several times less than the buildup of force observed in the Kaliningrad Region and the Western Military District of Russia. In other words, the Russian military presence in this region exceeds manifold NATO troops concentration, even during these drills.

– Is NATO ready for an adequate response in case of a hypothetic aggression in this region?

– To put it in a nutshell, unfortunately not. And we would have to wait for help for a long time, it would take weeks. NATO reinforcement presence on the territory of the Baltic States is unambiguously related only with dominance in the skies. All concept of troops and equipment projection is based upon moving them by air. Establishing dominance in the skies takes a lot of time, as NATO would have to resolve the problem of air defence systems not only on the territory of the Kaliningrad Region, Pskov, Leningrad regions of Russia, in Belarus. Dealing with these issues is undoubtedly fraught with the danger of a huge escalation and some nuclear scenario. I think that any scenario of a conflict, which involves not only the Baltic States, but other NATO members, is fraught with turning into an escalation, which catastrophic consequences are even hard to imagine.

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