Ukrainian Intelligence: What Will Lukashenka Do When Kremlin Starts Pressing Him With A Mighty Heave?

Russia realizes its plans in the Western military command region.

Deputy Director of the Department of the Chief Intelligence Headquarters of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi has told this in an interview to Euroradio.

“If we recall the Soviet times, we will see that this is a classical structure of a strong group with reserves and powerful tank groups, capable of conducting both attacks and counterattacks. If initially it was planned only to launch three brigades in the Western direction, today these plans have changed and Russia is establishing three full-fledged divisions in the squad of the 1st tank army and the 20th all-arms army in close proximity to the Ukrainian border.

As for Klintsy, the 28th motorized rifle brigade has been sent there, on the base of which they will set up two motorized rifle regiments. Later, they plan to revive the 144th division dislocated in Smolensk, and the 3rd division, which will be placed closer to Boguchar.

We do realize that the first phase of the confrontation between Russia and NATO is taking place at the territory of Ukraine. The newly formed divisions remain, in fact, the reserve, which may be involved in the combat actions in case of a more large-scale invasion in Ukraine. The two corps that were created at the occupied territories can hold the line and are capable of conducting local attacks at certain directions, but they cannot make a broader invasion in the territories of Ukraine without Russia’s help. This is why all these constant groups are set up close to the Ukrainian borders now,” — the expert says.

According to him, when the conflict just started, the same brigades were established practically in the same regions: the 23rd, the 9th, the 28th. Then they were repositioned with an aim of reinforcement, for a possible broader invasion in the territory of Ukraine. As a rule, they were located in field camps, at firing grounds. The tactical groups which entered Ukraine later were created at the same places.

“You want an example? The 150th division will be formed in Rostov region. There are two firing grounds there: Kadamovski and Kuzminski. At present, they are establishing field camps over there, to locate the subdivisions of the said division. However, this was the place where the battalions of the tactical group of the 15th and 18th brigades were created. Later on, they entered the territory of Ukraine. Actually, they started the armed aggression. After that, two occupation corps, which are called “people’s police” or something else in the so-called “DPR’, “LPR”, were formed on the basis of these Russian troops. In the reality, they are subordinate to the Russian Federation and are commanded from the territory of the Southern military command region. Supplies, arms — everything comes from Russia. This is what we call the new type of a hybrid war,” — Skibitsky has noted.

It would be useful to recall the base in Yelno, located at the distance of “8-hours walk” away from Smolensk.

“The Russian military bases alongside the Ukrainian border are located 45-50 kilometers away from the borderline, and this is very close. Klintsy remains a very dangerous base for us, which can strike a blow on the Northern territory of Ukraine. Or the 3rd division, which will be established in Valuiki, some 40 kilometers away from our border. Just imagine how many troops will be there: a fully established division has about 10-12 thousand military men in its squad,” — Vadym Skibitskyi has said.

It is considered that the Belarusian army is protecting the Western borders of the Russia-Belarus Union State. What does the reinforcement at the border with Belarus mean: do the Russians mistrust the Belarusian army, or is it something else?

“First of all, they tend to reinforce their potential in that direction. Secondly, would you mind answering the following question: are you ready to fight with Europe defending Russia’s interests at your own territory? I do understand that you have a Union State with them etc., but, the practice shows, the interests of Putin and his circles significantly prevail over the interests of his allies,” — the expert has said.

In 2014, the danger of the Russian troops’ blow against our country from the territory of Belarus was discussed in Ukraine. According to Skibitskyi, they still think such variant remains possible.

“According to the canons of the military art, it is very easy to use the territory of a union state for a full-fledged aggression. So, we do not exclude that. Yes, Lukashenka promises this will never happen… You have a union state – this is one point. Secondly, you have very close economic and military connections. I don’t know what Lukashenka will do when the Kremlin starts pressing him with a mighty heave. They are good at that. We see it by Russia’s actions with regard to Belarus, Moldova, Transdniester, Armenia – the countries, over which Russia is trying to re-establish its control,” — the expert has added.

He is convinced that Moscow will continue to try to place their air base in Belarus.

“This is reducing the reaction time of combat aircraft during a possible confrontation with NATO. Russia needs this. It is not for nothing that Russia strengthens its group in the Western military combat region, reinforces the group in Crimea .Wherever possible, as close to the borders with Europe as they can, they conduct amplification of the groups, restoration and reconstruction of the air bases, which can admit the troops”, — Vadym Skibitskyi has concluded.