‘We See An Absolutely Staged Story’

The political scientist explained why illegal immigrants have now appeared on the border with Poland.

Things are hot again on the border between Poland and Belarus. Migrants have resumed storming the border. One of such attempts involved 220 illegal immigrants with ladders.

Why are we seeing an escalation of the situation at the border? Charter97.org website talked about this with Belarusian political scientist Anatol Kotau:

— Two characters definitely needed this: Putin and Lukashenka. This is one of the ways of hybrid pressure on Western partners. The situation at the border is happening not only because the snow has melted, it has become warmer and there is no need to be afraid of freezing in the Belarusian forests, but because the migration channels that ensure the delivery of these illegal migrants to the border have started working again with renewed vigor.

Over the past few months, it has not been seen that the authorities in Russia and Belarus responsible for preventing illegal migration have en masse caught representatives of those nationalities who storm the border. After Crocus, there were raids on Tajiks and other citizens of the post-Soviet space, but in no case against citizens of Syria, Libya or other countries who were encountered at the border.

We see an absolutely staged story. We must understand that all analysts are already predicting that May-June will be the period for a new offensive by Russian troops in Ukraine. A number of directions are mentioned. Naturally, at the same time, it is desirable to launch hybrid pressure on the European Union so that it deals with its own problems, and not with helping Ukraine, which is now in a very difficult situation anyway.

Delays in aid from the United States of America have a negative impact on the country's defense capabilities. Accordingly, all of these, one might say, are links in one chain: in Belarus there is hybrid pressure on the European Union, and in Ukraine they are preparing for a new wave of offensive. These are simply instruments of influence on Ukraine and its allies. It can be predicted that this pressure will only increase unless there is a serious pushback.

It’s not just about illegal migrants; more and more cases of smuggling worth millions of dollars are being recorded; this can also undermine stability at the border.

— How, in your opinion, can Poland respond?

— Poland and other countries have warned about this more than once that there are certain “red lines”, and if these lines are crossed, they may begin to close the border. If we are talking about citizens, it is already more than half closed. However, this is not what worries Lukashenka; he is less interested in citizens’ trips than in the movement of goods.

Accordingly, it is time to return to the declarations and joint instruments that were developed a year or two ago by Poland and the Baltic countries, this is the issue of closing the border to goods traffic in the event of continued attacks by illegal migrants and the flow of smuggling.

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