Mikhail Kavalyou: «Hushed creeping Russian privatisation is to be carried out in Belarus very quickly”

How Russian ruble’s strength would affect the economy of Belarus, and how the country could avoid economic takeover? According to the dean of the economy faculty of the Belarusian State University Mikhail Kavalyou, there is one way out, to stimulate influx of Western, Arabic, Chinese capitals to the country at any cost.

The recipe of preserving independence and sovereignty has been offered to the “Zavtra tvoyej strany” by the dean of the economy faculty of the Belarusian State University, Professor Mikhail Kavalyou.

- What consequences Russian ruble’s strengthening and growth of the Russian economy in general could have for Belarus?

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- Russia is really experiencing economic revival. [It happens] thanks to the prices for oil and gas, but principally thanks to the fact that it is in the initial stage of perhaps not very just, but very effective big monopoly capitalism. Firstly, this form of capitalism is always effective, and besides, not corporate, but family business is developed in Russia. It is very effective in the first generation. But for Belarus it is to have drastic consequences for the following reasons.

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Firstly, it would be more and more difficult to remain competitive at the Russian market for Belarusian goods. If needed, Russians would produce tractors, any cars, buses and so on using their petrodollars. If they won’t make them themselves, Chinese would import cheap ones.

The second reason is that the aggressive young Russian capitalism will definitely carry out expansion to the Belarusian market, using unrestricted mobility of goods and services between our countries. The Belarusian state controls capital flow and privatization, however, quiet creeping Russian privatisation is to take place in Belarus very quickly now.

Look how quickly Russians build shops here, for instance, take the store chain “Rublyovskiy”. In the similar manner Russian networks professionals will go to restaurant business. Touristic business is in fact represented by the single Russian “Tez tour”. The same is happening with insurance companies and banks. It’s inevitable.

In this situation Belarus has freedom of manoeuvre in only one thing. At all costs we are to stimulate influx of Western European, Arabic, Chinese capitals, and thus to provoke competition with Russian capital. Otherwise economic acquisition of Belarus will take place inevitably, as the young energetic Russian capitalism with huge money (for which Russia is getting too tight, and which can easily buy largest plants and factories all over the world) will buy up everything in Belarus.

In order to preserve independence and sovereignty, it is better to diversify property control, and at least one third of it should be owned by Belarusians. And Belarusians are disadvantaged in our country. They do not dare to demonstrate their savings openly. So we do not know how many millionaires are there in the country, and whether we have at least one billionaire.