Alyaksandr Klaskouski: Lukashenka and Sheiman are closely bound by some interests, so dismissal is unlikely

At the session on the tragic accident in Minsk on 4 July Alyaksandr Lukashenka blamed state secretary of the Security Council Viktar Sheiman and said he couldn’t hold the office after the blast.

Will Viktar Sheiman be dismissed? Experts of “Zavtra tvoey strany”, politologist Valer Karbalevich and political writer Alyaksandr Klaskouski, discuss this topic.

– As far as I understand, Lukashenka unambiguously said Sheiman would have to leave his post. There is a temptation to explain the situation by the fact that the blast was a result of struggle between the secret services, and Sheiman was pushed off his post as a result, – Karbalevich notes. – But in my view, there is another reason: it has been spoken for two years that Sheiman will have to dismiss and Viktar Lukashenka would succeed power from Sheiman.

According to Valer Karbalevich, Alyaksandr Lukashenka will use the opportunity to retire his most reliable friend and official who has been obedient to him.

– It has been spoken long time ago that Sheiman will be appointed ambassador to Venezuela, or to other site, but I think the time has come for Sheiman to dismiss, – the expert says.

Valer Karbalevich doesn’t think Viktar Sheiman can take equal position after his possible dismissal from the post of State Secretary of the Security Council.

– As a rule, if anyone is dismissed, he or she takes lower position, – the politologist thinks. – it happened so with KGB head Matskevich, head of the State Control Committee Tozik, so I think this variant is the most likely.

– From the one hand, it is probably the most slashing Lukashenka’s public criticism of Sheiman, in any case, I can’t remember a possible dismissal to be announced so directly, – political writer Alyaksandr Klaskouski says. – From the other hand, there are some moments, worth noting. The first moment, the session itself was very emotional, Lukashenka was nervous, he had many questions to the defence and law enforcement agencies. This irate tone can mean that Lukashenka spoke figuratively. If to remind the words he said at Stalin’s line memorial on 5 July, like “we will put screws on certain persons”, these statement may stay, in my view, in the same expressive and metaphoric line. It is a well-known fact that the head of state is very expressive when he is too excited, but his words shouldn’t always be taken literally, he often said at agricultural meetings heads would soon roll, but people preserved their posts, though they were frightened.

The other moment is related with personality of Viktar Sheiman.

– Perhaps, he is the last man from the old candidate team of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, he run for elections of 1994 with, – the expert reminds. – The fact that all other people were weeded out, some of them even faced scandals, but this man stayed with the head of state, means they are closely bound by some ties and interests, so it is possible that after the session, the emotions calm down, and this radical decision wouldn’t be reached.