Government waiting for disaster: Gazprom “ate” budget surplus

The latest data, published by the Ministry of Finance of Belarus, are represented by Russian “Gazeta”. Surplus of the Belarusian budget amounts to USD 1.3 billion, or 4.2% GDP, over seven months in 2008. According to the latest data of the Ministry of Finance, the surplus will reach 2.5% GDP, or USP 1.4 billion till the end of 2008.

If the budget was balanced and had minimal deficit and surplus during the last three years, the analytics think it may meet increasing deficit in future. One of the main causes is gas price rise.

Under the signed agreements, Belarus has been receiving Russian gas on a principle of equal income since the beginning of 2008. It means gas price for Belarus is determined according to the same principle as prices for Europe.

However, Minks managed to gain favourable conditions of transferring to market pricing due to concession of 50 per cent stake in Beltransgaz. Belarus will have discounts till 2010 (33 per cent this year, 20 per cent – in 2009 and 10 per cent – in 2010. Since 2011, Belarus is to buy gas at the same price as Europe buys: gas price must increase at least3.8-fold within four years.

The Belarusian side has reached a conclusion that if Russia doesn’t review its pricing methods, the country may face an economic disaster. Percentage of unprofitable enterprises having efficiency from 0 to 5 per cent will amount to 60.5 per cent in 2009, and will reach 81.3 per cent in 2011.