Belarus’s GDP in dollars dropped by 19%

The authorities hide catastrophic decline in economy behind trillions of Belarusian rubles.

The government reported about a 0.2% GDP growth in 2009. So, Belarus was among two European countries demonstrating growth. At the same time, a decrease in the gross domestic products in Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine was about 20%.

The secret of the Belarusian economic miracle 2009 gave me no rest. How is it possible? Our neighbours demonstrate decline in economies, but ours is growing. However, official data on a 35% drop in export confused. All Belarusians know Belarus is an export-oriented state, more than 70% of the country’s products are meant for export.

Data on economic statistics in a newspaper: “nominal GDP in 2009 amounted to Br136.8 trillion against Br128.8 trillion (in terms of current rate) in 2008. Thus, nominal GDP increased by 6.2% in 2009.”

Taking into account inflation rate, the Belarusian government multiplied nominal 6.2% and deflator together and announce the growth was 0.2%. For me, and probably for 99% of Belarusians, trillions and billions of Belarusian rubles means the same as trillions and billions of Zimbabwean dollars, Kyrgyz soms, or Ethiopian birrs. In other words, they mean nothing. Belarusians can’t be blamed, as, with several denominations taken into account, the Belarusian ruble showed 11,000-fold devaluation under the rule of one president.

Using a calculator I’m trying to convert these confusing figures (trillions of Belarusian rubles) into more convenient US dollars. The average dollar-ruble rate in 2008 was 1:2100, in 2009 – 1:2750. We have a quite another case.

Belarus’s GDP amounted to USD49.7 billion in 2009 against USD61.3 billion in 2008. So, decline in GDP measured in dollars was 19%. This is close to what Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia have.

There are statistical data on industry production. Belarusian industrial output was Br123.2 trillion in 2009; in 2008 nominal output amounted to Br127.5 trillion. Even nominal figures show a 3.4% decline. Having multiplied these figures and an unknown deflator together (though the official producer price index for industrial production was 111.3%), the Belarusian government announced only 2.8% slump in industrial production.

Let us digress from birrs and Belarusian rubles. In 2009 our industry produced goods for USD 44.8 billion, and in 2008 for USD60.7 billion. A slump in production in dollars was 26%.

I would certainly be accused of unprofessionalism, lack of knowledge about the real deflator, but no one would persuade me that 10 million Belarusian rubles of an engineer of tractor plant deposited in a Belarusian bank today, is the same sum as in 2008. And observing equilibristic of Lukashenka’s Ministry of Statistics, the words from a well-known Soviet cartoon come to one’s mind: “And if we measure him in parrots, he would be much longer”.

Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of the civil campaign European Belarus