Nezavisimaya gazeta: Peace to Brussels, war to Moscow

Lukashenka starts maneuvering between Russia and Europe again.

This week release of political prisoners and return of European ambassadors is expected, which should mean renewal of a dialogue with Brussels, Nezavisimaya gazeta writes. The aviation agencies of the country expect to preserve flight connection between Belarus and Russia. Interestingly, experts see connection of the aviation conflict with Russian with Belarus’ stepping up activities in the European direction.

In the end of the last week official Minsk three times told Brussels about wanting to stop further escalation of the conflict. First Alyaksandr Lukashenka made a statement. At consultations on the issues of foreign policy he made it clear that he is ready to fulfill the main condition for renewing the dialogue with the EU – to release political prisoners.

“As for those who had petitioned for pardon, in the nearest future I am going to consider these questions,” the Belarusian president said about oppositionists, who are kept in prisons, and calling them “so-called political prisoners.” However, Lukashenka as usual tried to pretend he is master of the situation, and not a person who has to make concessions. “We are not against normalizing relations with them, but without any pressure and blackmailing,” Lukashenka specified. In order to secure his position of the one who dictates his terms, he warned Europe that possibilities of EU ambassadors’ return to Minsk would be considered on a personal basis. “We have agreed with the Foreign Minister we are going to consider each country and each ambassador personally, as far as their return to Belarus is considered,” he said.

We remind that reports about possible return of ambassadors after Easter (which is celebrated on April 8 by Europe this year) emerged a week ago, with a reference to European sources. NG wrote then that Minsk is most probably to view this move of the EU as capitulation. Lukashenka’s attempts to dictate conditions of truce to Europe confirm this idea. However, experts found Lukashenka’s statements overconfident. “If Minsk will try to divide the EU ambassadors into good and bad ones, there would be no succesful détente,” a political analyst Valery Karbalevich believes. According to him, a threat of a selective approach to EU ambassadors “is nothing more than a combative rhetoric,” as by their collective demarche European diplomats have made it clear that they have a unified position.

The authorities of Belarus have possible decided that this signal, accompanied by terms, would be not enough for Brussels, so Syarhei Martynau, Foreign Minister, has made a wider and milder explanation of Minsk’s position. “We have not asked European ambassadors to leave,” he made excuses. “We offered to go for consultations to two concrete ambassadors, maybe for a week… the response of the EU was apparently disproportional,” the minister explained. “We have always openly and directly stated out interest in further development of normal relations. What is happening in our relations with the European Union now certainly does not suit Belarus in any way,” he confessed.

On Friday the head of the presidential administration Uladzimir Makei entered the dialogue with Europe. He told Brussels how democratization of Belarus could be achieved. Anything but the method of sanctions, Makei said. As the developments desirable for Minsk, he recalled the situation before the presidential election. “Do you remember, there was a rampage of democracy then, a public advisory board under the administration worked; Minks forum was a kind of informal platform for a dialogue of the society and the state, a concrete discussion on improvement of the Belarusian legislation in the key of European values was carried out… We are ready to teach from good practices,” Makei assured probably not Belarusian TV viewers. It followed from his words that the sanctions imposed by the EU made this productive dialogue close up, and this dialogue would be possible to return if the new session of the EU Council held in the end of April would not make decisions counterproductive for Belarus. “We are ready for embarking on a normal, peaceful dialogue. I think we are going to achieve mutual understanding very soon. If adopted in the spirit of a dialogue, the decision would become a wonderful background for return of the EU ambassadors to Belarus,” the head of Lukashenka’s administration outlined the course of events.

In fact, “Lukashenka offers peace to the EU”, Valery Karbalevich believes. According to the expert, the head of the Belarusian state fears most that the country would be deprived the opportunity to host the Ice Hockey Championship in 2014. “The Congress of the International Ice Hockey Federation which is to consider this issue, is to take place in May. That is why they have to manage to melt the relations with the EU in order to receive a positive decision,” the expert believes.

Another factor which makes Minsk to agree for truce with Brussels is relations with Russia. Experts warned that after Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin Moscow would demand from Lukashenka to settle accounts for external political and economic support. This primarily means access to the Belarusian market and participation in privatization. Experts thought that it would not happen earlier than in autumn, however the “air war” has made it clear that there could be no respite. “The Russian-Belarusian aviation war” is not a war of airlines for the spheres of influence at the market, it is a war of Lukashenka and the Kremlin, in which the Kremlin explains the mechanism of how the Belarusian leader would be “bent”, believes the supporter of the former presidential candidate, a political prisoner Andrei Sannikov, Mikalai Khalezin. “The Kremlin does not plan to buy Belavia, they want to acquire the air company for debts, and preferably in a package with a dozen of other national companies,” the politician believes.

Judging by the statements of representatives of air authorities of Belarus, official Minsk understands the essence of the conflict in the same way. “By such actions Aeroflot is trying to seize the Belarusian air market,” said Ihar Charhinets, deputy director general of Belavia about the reasons of the conflict. As said by him, it was Aeroflot who initiated the letter on limiting the flights to regional cities of Russia, and which was received from the Russian Transportation Ministry.

We remind that last Thursday the Russian Transportation Ministry warned his Belarusian colleagues that since April 13 Belavia would not be able to carry out flights to any Russian cities except Moscow. At the moment Belarusians fly to St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Kaliningrad.

The sides charge each other with a failure to stick to the agreements and assure that they are not going to back away from their positions. Moscow believes that there should be no limitations in the Single Economic Space, while Minsk states that it is necessary to respect a parity of flights frequency in accordance with bilateral agreements. Belavia is set to challenge the ban on flights to Russian regions at the Economic Court and to continue carrying out flights,” said Anatoly Husarau, the head of the company said on air of the local state-run TV channel. It is expected that the talks on the schedule of the  flights are to continue today.