Fear of coup d'etat

Lukashenka is afraid that Moscow will “put him away”, so he is doing his best to decrease the number of potential peers.

Many countries of the European Union saw a willingness of the Belarusian leader to search ways to cooperate with Europe when he appointed Uladzimir Makey as Belarus’ foreign minister. I saw a completely different implication.

For the Belarusian state system, the position of the head of the presidential administration is a key one, way more influential that the prime-minister and speakers of both the chambers of the parliament. That is why in Belarus, where the foreign minister is basically a secretary with foreign language skills, Uladzimir Makey’s appointment looks like an obvious rank lowering.

After Viktar Sheiman has lost his former influence, there is no ”number two” in the Belarusian system. Given that Aliaksandar Lukashenka is “number one”, it is in fact impossible to define who is number two, or three, or four. The so called power block gets special care from the powers. It was obvious that after Igar Rachkouski, the chairperson of the state committee of the border guard, was dismissed after the “teddy bear landing”, the entire military leadership now consists of people born outside Belarus. Uladzimir Makey’s post was given to Andrei Kabiakou. Kabiakou, who had recently admitted that his motherland is Russia, has been summoned from Moscow. Once again, an official born in Belarus has been replaced. As a result, in today’s Belarus the highest officials who speak Belarusian have become something like museum exhibits. But I am convinced that the reason of the frequent dismissals of Belarusians is rather trivial. According to the Belarusian Constitution, only a person born in Belarus can become the Belarusian president. Lukashenka born with a power instinct is afraid that Moscow will “put him away”, so he is doing his best to decrease the number of potential peers. But in my view, filling the key positions with persons closely connected to the Kremlin is no remedy.

It might seem that the obvious ”number two” and the first candidate to the highest post, in an extraordinary situation, should be the prime minister. As for Mikhail Miasnikovich, the fact that, after a long break between influential positions, he has become the prime minister of our country once again is symbolic. He was the head of the electoral headquarters of former prime minister Viachaslau Kiebich, and then switched sides and in 1994 joined newly elected Aliaksandar Lukashenka. And it is noteworthy that he is still the prime minister. But in the Belarusian political system where the president is always right this drawback is fixed in no time.

I believe that the history will soon put everything in its place. Until then, I dare make a forecast: after the election to the chamber of representatives, the person appointed as the speaker definitely won’t be a Belarusian-born. But will that help Aliaksandar Lukashenka keep the power?

Ales Mikhalevich, Bielorusskie Novosti