Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Minsk and Stockholm may break off diplomatic relations

The EU prepares to take measures in response to expulsion of a Swedish diplomat from Minsk.

The EU Political and Security Committee will consider the situation of expulsion of Swedish ambassador Stefan Eriksson from Belarus. The EU will take measures in relation to Minsk, a spokesperson for the EU High Representative Catherine Ashton said.

“This decision runs counter to norms of relations between states... The issue will be reverted to in the Political and Security Committee in Brussels, including with regard to appropriate EU measures,” the spokesperson for EU  High Representative Catherine Ashton told journalists, Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Russia) writes.

Meantime, the press service of the Swedish MFA said the officers of the Belarusian embassy, who would be expelled in response, would be given some weeks to leave the country. It would be impolite to demand them to leave the country immediately, the MFA says. Stockholm does not have a permanent Belarusian ambassador. Some experts claim referring to sources in diplomatic circles it's not without grounds. The pro-democracy activity of Stefan Eriksson, who has worked in Minsk for 7 years, and his active involvement in the country's cultural life have been irritating the authorities. By the way, Stefan Eriksson is the  only foreign diplomat who learned the Belarusian language during his term in office and actively used it. Observers suppose it might be an additional factor that irritated the Belarusian dictator, who does not know the language of the country he has been ruling for 18 years.

Official sources deny any links between Stefan Eriksson's departure and intrusion into Belarus's airspace by a Swedish light plane. Belarusian MFA press secretary Andrei Savinykh said the accreditation of the Swedish diplomat had expired. This version was caught up by the state propaganda, which states official Minsk already made a concession by allowing him to stay in the country three months after the expiration.

Ahead of a discussion in Brussels of official Minsk's conduct, experts and observers find it difficult to suppose if the EU will show an unanimous and harsh reaction, including new sanctions. This time, it does not matter that Europe does not have a common view on Lukashenka. “The Belarusian issue has been pushed to the sidelines,” Belarusian politologist Valery Karbalevich comments on the situation. “Europe is concerned over the crisis in Greece and the situation in Syria.” However the expert thinks Brussels has now more grounds for tough measures. “The actions by the authorities are more brutal and scandalous now than in February,” he thinks. Karbalevich turns attention to the fact that in February European ambassadors left Minsk in response to a proposal to EU ambassador Maira Mora and Polish ambassador Leszek Szerepka to leave the country for consultations.  “There were no soft words this time – Eriksson was just kicked out of the country,” the experts reminds.

Besides, the diplomatic relations between Minsk and Stockholm might be broken off, because there are no ambassadors, two Belarusian diplomats are leaving Sweden and Belarus may expel two Swedish diplomats.

The vacation season may soften the reaction of the EU. “The Belarusian authorities timed the expulsion to the peak of summer holidays in the EU. Let's see how European politicians will be ready for diplomatic mobilization in the low political activity season,” Joerg Forbrig, the director of the Fund for Belarus Democracy of the German Marshall Fund, says.