Paval Marozau: Swedish bears – agents of Western special services

The summer heat is gone, and so is the scandal started by the Swedish bears with parachutes scattered over Belarusian cities and towns.

The public has spoken, the Swedes have done PR, the Belarusian powers have carried out an investigation and drawn conclusions. But the aftertaste is still there…

I am definitely an opponent of the acting Belarusian powers (my status of a political refugee in Estonia proves it), but I’ve never liked this story, from the very beginning. When the progressive democratic audience praised the Swedish heroes to the skies, the Belarusian powers was making clumsy attempts to lie and deny everything, while KGB, who tried to escape the rage from the above, was catching anyone who happened to be near. Human rights and the solidarity with the Belarusian people demonstrated by the Swedes is certainly a good thing, and one could even believe in their pure will (or forgive their mercenary interests in promoting their company internationally). But why did they have to invent such an intricate scheme, when there are lots of simple alternatives, both in Sweden and all over the world, apart from Belarus?

And then it got me thinking: who won from implementing project Rust-2 in Belarus? Could ordinary people carry it out without support of serious guys from special services? I won’t argue with those who disagree, but I made a conclusion for myself: this action couldn’t be performed without assistance of competent institutions outside Belarus. Moreover, I believe that not only Belarusian powers, but even the Belarusian society will not benefit from the action.

You will probably ask why would anyone start this whole thing? Obviously, Lukashenka and his team have lost all decent allies, in the East as well as in the West. Any weakening, pressure on the Belarusian regime, or a spot in its face has been a win for everyone since 19 December 2010. The West and Russia who have their strategic and tactic interests in Belarus needed to see that the Belarusian air defense is a “colossus on clay legs”.

Why was it impossible to perform the action only with knowledge from the Internet and basic pilot skills? In my view it is pretty obvious, too: the airplane must have followed the rout that most likely had previously been used by a high Belarusian official to smuggle goods for personal benefits. And the Swedes knew about this rout. They could learn about it only from counter-agents in Lithuania or their protectors. There are other small facts that point to that fact. For example, why would Belarusians catch a Lithuanian spy right after the flight, if not to take revenge upon their colleagues in Lithuania’s special services (for disclosing the channel) and upon Lithuania as a whole (for having allowed the Swedish pilots and their protectors perform the action)?

Why do I insist that the Belarusian society isn’t among those who benefited from that?

First of all, at least two innocent people have suffered. KGB has them now; I don’t think that it will end well for them. Second, those Belarusians who don’t have much in Belarus to be proud of, have been demonstrated what their “mythically impregnable” defense shield is worth. The same was showed to the Russian army and officials, and that will affect the level of grants and the nature of the Russian-Belarusian relations in the near future. Third, the states hostile towards Belarus will obviously use this fact in their interests, and if the time comes to decide whether to send cruise missiles to Belarus or not, they won’t hesitate that much…

But I felt most sorry for the Belarusian military men. What did they do wrong?

Let’s go through the most popular versions presented by Lukashenka, the army and experts.

1. Someone at the command post had too many drinks and missed the aircraft. Who’s to blame? Most likely those in the army, who have created the atmosphere of hopelessness and indifference, disrespect towards one’s profession and professionalism itself. It is obviously not even the defense minister, but the very system that has been regulating everything and everyone in our country for nearly 20 years.

2. The military men saw the plane but were too afraid to land it or to bring it down. Why? Because they knew what air corridor they should ignore, because Lukashenka changes leadership of air defense as Tampax tampons, because in Belarus every initiative leads to a punishment…

3. The plane was seen, lead and left alone due to some reasons. Then it is not the army, but the officials and the many state propagandists that should take the blame. They should have given a correct explanation to the society and international partners.

Well, it is not the army’s fault, but it is the army who stands the racket. And we expect the Belarusian army to be able to protect us and the enormous Russia, when the time comes! It seems to me that this becomes a dangerous illusion. With this attitude from the state, its army won’t last long.

I believe that it is time for the society to deal with its army’s problems. It is time to create a Public Committee on Protection of the Belarusian Army that would:

- provide public support of the modernization of the Belarusian army;

- openly defend military officers and soldiers from the tyranny of the dictatorship;

- adapt international best practice;

- involve officers in the public discussion;

- help with effective PR and independent expert opinions.

I am convinced that as a civil society, we should replace malicious joy from the army’s mistakes and problems with help and active support of what is still good about the army. We should realize: the Belarusian army is not Lukashenka’s property, but a structure that exists to protect the people and the state in history’s critical moments. The army should be taken good care of, however ineffective it might be.

Paval Marozau, Naviny.by

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Paval Marozau was born on 11 October 1978 in Minsk. He graduated from the Belarusian State University of Economics with major in Banking (2000), got a Master’s degree from the European Humanities University (2004). A Belarusian public figure. Since 2004, the leader of the community The Third Way. In 2005 Paval was charged with libel of the Belarusian President in satirical animation. He became a political refugee in Estonia. In 2008, Paval founded the Congress of new Belarusian Diaspora of Europe and USA. In 2009, he started online-television ARU-TV. Paval has implemented a range of public projects for the Belarusian people, in the sphere of culture, civil education, media and Internet. Since 2011, he has been working with consolidation of pro-reform powers in Belarus within the platform Alliance for reforms in Belarus.