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18.12.2013

Ukrainian politologist: Putin chains Yanukovych 37

15:26, — Politics
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Ukrainian politologist: Putin chains Yanukovych

The president of Ukraine shares Lukashenka's fate.

Political analyst Vladimir Gorbach from the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation spoke to charter97.org about the meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia.

The president of Ukraine put his head in a noose yesterday. He is on the leash now. I'd even say that Putin put a financial chain on Yanukovich. Yesterday's event makes the Ukrainian leadership dependent on the will and desires of Russia. The formal joining the Customs Union is not necessary. It is much worse than membership in the Customs Union, it is financial slavery. As for the loan, the Russian Federation will give tranches for its Ukrainian partners to fulfill their obligations, which we don't know yet. We will know it bit by bit. The loan is good, but Ukraine has to pay it, and it doesn't have money. The matter is $15 billion. But Ukraine's forex reserves are $19 billion. We have no money to pay the loan, the expert stressed.

The politologist adds that Ukraine has to give $7 billion to other creditors next year. The Russian leadership knew well Ukraine wouldn't be able to pay the Russian loan back.

Of course, there should be some additional arrangements on how Ukraine can pay the loan. It's likely that conditions include both political obligations and the state property. As for gas, prices will be reviewed every quarter, we already know it. The Russian side can set additional conditions for Ukraine in the beginning of each quarter. They may include privatisation of Ukrainian enterprises by Russian companies. Yanukovych can survive with this money until the 2015 presidential elections, but not longer. A straight road to the Eurasian Union expects him. He will share Lukashenka's fate, but in a weaker form, because Yanukovych doesn't have as much power as Lukashenka has and will hardly be able to receive it, the analyst said.

Vladimir Gorbach adds Ukraine is in the state of a technical default, which wasn't declared.

But it has no relation to signing an association deal with the EU. It is the result of actions by the current Ukrainian authorities. Both the EU and the International Monetary Fund offered aid, but Yanukovych didn't accept their conditions, because it would have reduced his power and deprived him of an opportunity to be re-elected in 2015. He chose to exchange his formal presidency for full dependence on Putin. That's what happened. It's no more sense to speak about the association agreement. It's clear now it was just a bluff and an attempt to make Putin offer better conditions for the loan. That's it. Yanukovych never had plans to sign the association agreement, the expert summed up.

Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych met in Moscow yesterday. Russia agreed to invest $15 billion from the country's National Welfare Fund in Ukraine's government debt. Gazprom and Naftogaz signed supplements to the gas supplies contact, under which Ukraine will buy Russian gas at $268.5 per 1,000 cubic metres.

Putin assured the topic of Ukraine's joining the Customs Union hadn't been discussed with Yanukovych. The decision to invest a part of Russia's' National Welfare Fund in Ukraine's securities didn't suppose any conditions, according to the Russian president.

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