Andrei Suzdaltsev: Lukashenka is trying to break out of isolation

The Belarusian ruler’s long-standing dream is to unite with Ukraine in crucial moment against Russia or Europe.

This is how a political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev commented for the charter97.org on the meeting of Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Viktar Janukovich, which will take place in May.

“Lukashenka urgently needs any meeting on the international level, since he is in real isolation and did not meet Putin so often recently, leave alone Nazarbaev. That is why the meeting with Janukovich is of principal importance for him. The Belarusian ruler takes into account that the Ukrainian state is now at a crossroads and has rich experience of cooperation with the countries of the European Union and Russian Federation. His long-standing dream is to unite with Ukraine in crucial moment against Russian or Europe. Such attempts were undertaken during the gas wars but they led to nothing. When a single front needed to be established, Kiev and Minsk would find an agreement with Moscow, i.e. benefits overweighed”, - the expert noted.

He believes that it is important for Belarus now that Kiev has communications with the EU of a completely different level, despite Julia Timoshenko being in prison.

“Ukrainian market is of important significance for Belarusian economy. Naturally, Belarus would want to preserve its influence in it, because it is in a way a customs sieve. Even in the most difficult situations with oil shipments to Ukraine Russian raw material came there through Belarus, which caused Moscow’s discontent, but those were deals profitable for Lukashenka and he is further interested in them”, - the political scientist is sure.

He highlighted that there is one more issue that worries Janukovich very much – Ukraine’s desire to simultaneously be in Europe and at the same time have access to Russian energy resources.

“He sees in Belarus an element of the Customs Union and Single Economic Space. The president of Ukraine wants to choose such a format that would allow him not to take any responsibility. This means that to only be a half-hearted member of the Customs Union. A bulk of other questions will be discussed, dealing with security, border and debts. As to the visa issue, it is very vague. I can hardly imagine that Ukrainians would in future need visas to go to Belarus. The creation of a visa regime between the states means a transfer to a completely different format of relations. They will no longer be considered friends, allies and partners. I do not think that Russia or Belarus would rush into these events since they are all interested in Ukraine’s resources”, - Andrei Suzdaltsev concluded.