Yuriy Dzhibladze and Olga Zakharova: Drowning dictator must not be saved

The European Union should not give Lukashenka a helping hand.

Representatives of the Working group on investments of the Committee of international control over the human rights situation in Belarus Olga Zakharova and Yuriy Dzhibladze presented a report “EU’s dilemma: What the dialogue with Belarus should be” at a press-conference in Warsaw.

The presentation took place in the Polish capital’s press-club. The presentation of the report by the Russian human rights activists were MEP Marek Migalski’s office, Charter’97 foundation and the Committee of international control over the human rights situation in Belarus.

Yuriy Dzhibladze reminded that this is already the third document of this kind, developed by the working group. It embraces the period of 2012 and the first half of 2013. The report’s authors have analyzed the situation with human rights in our country as well as economic links between the Lukashenka regime and the European Union in Russia. Yuriy Dzhibladze believes that Western countries virtually save the regime by trading with Lukashenka.

“We clearly see that the situation with human rights does not simply remain as bad as it was in 2011, but it keeps worsening. None of the recommendations or demands of the UN or OSCE or the resolutions of other international organizations were fulfilled. Anxiety is caused by the situation with the political prisoners, who undergo incremental pressure – psychological as well as physical – with the purpose of forcing acknowledgement of guilt and a plea for pardon out of them.

The main thing from the analysis of the past two years is that the trade with the European Union turned to be the most efficient way of financing the Lukashenka regime and strengthening the repressive apparatus. The economic sanctions, introduced in 2011, proved to be effective, because thatnks to the threat of their expansion the release of two political prisoners was achieved – Andrei Sannikov and Dzmitry Bandarenka. But on the other hand, as the analysis of economic data shows, there is still a big hole in these restrictive measures, because a large number of key oil trading companies, owned by the oligarchs close to the Belarusian ruler, were not included in the black lists. They save Lukashenka and helped him feel more confident.

Representatives of the regime are constantly threatening the West that if the sanctions are not cancelled, Russia will absorb the Belarusian economy. This policy bears fruit. But we see that the Kremlin has lately started acting tougher and is not ready to be satisfied with mere Lukashenka’s declarations. The Russian authorities demand the sale of Belarusian enterprises. But the dictator will not go for that, because he perfectly understands that as soon as he gives up the control over key assets, he will immediately lose the power. That is why the curtsies being currently paid to the West are the only way out for him”, - Yuriy Dzhibladze said.

Olga Zakharova emphasized that the European Union was again trying to save the drowning dictator, paying him advances by lifting sanctions from a number of businesses and giving a helping hand.

“For the third year in a row the EU has been making one same mistake – playing by Lukashenka’s rules. At the same time it loses the opportunity to put real pressure (which it is capable of putting) and not only achieve the release and exoneration of political prisoners, but influence possible systemic changes in Belarus. In 2011 during a deepest crisis – in economy as well as in human rights – Europe lingered to introduce real economic restrictive measures, having let Lukashenka to save himself in the end by trading with the EU. That year the positive trade balance accounted for about 7 billion dollars.

In 2012 the EU again allowed the businesses, which were not included in the sanctions list by the effort of some countries, to trade profitably and earn a positive trade balance of about 9 billion dollars. It is striking, but in 2013 Russia stopped the oil-trading scheme and the export to the EU fell by 40%. But now the EU is virtually stretching a hand for the dictator to grab, paying him advances in the form of lifting sanctions from two enterprises, one of which has a direct relation to Lukashenka’s family. This happens instead of firmly putting forward their own conditions.

The fall in exports together with the necessity to pay debts for previous years is the real stick that made Lukashenka simulate a “turn to the West”. It is stupid not to use it.

First of all, the repetition of the 2008-2010 scenario with the so-called thaw in the Western front will be malign for Belarus. The economic crisis then forced Lukashenka to simulate a democratic “thaw”, which the West willingly believed, having provided him, among others, by an IMF loan and other support.

A repetition of such a scenario will lead to the regime’s conservation until the 2015 elections with its subsequent preservation for, at least, five more years. Whether there will be another protest in the square – it is hard to tell. The society is frightened and cleansed, a whole generation has grown up, which does not know what freedom is and thinks it has always been like that. Nevertheless, the European Union has all the leverage in order to help Belarusians to open a way to freedom, and we hope that it will use this leverage”, - Olga Zakharova claimed.