Klaudijus Maniokas: EU will continue policy of Lukashenka regime isolation

A well-known Lithuanian politologist is sceptical about possible changes in the policy of Brussels in relation to Belarus.

Klaudijus Maniokas, an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University, says the EU will propose nothing or little to Belarus at the Eastern Partnership Summit, because Europe's policy towards Belarus is still aimed at isolation of the regime. He has a sceptical view on changes in the EU's policy and forecasts that a principle of “selective engagement” will dominate in the EU-Belarus relations.

“The Eastern Partnership countries are still very different, but they already have something in common. The process of further differentiation goes on due to individual packets between the EU and every particular country. The difference in packets will be visible at the upcoming EaP Summit in Vilnius. The EU will offer nothing or little to Belarus. Azerbaijan may get something or not. Moldova and Georgia will have association agreements and free trade agreements. Ukraine is likely to have its own way. In general all agree that further differentiation is needed. It is possibly only in the framework of these agreements,” he said in an interview with charter97.org.

How would you describe the EU's policy towards Belarus? It was decided to invite Belarusian foreign minister Uladzimir Makei, who was on the EU travel ban list, to the Vilnius Summit. Will this decision influence the deeper engagement of Belarus into the Eastern Partnership project?

As I understand, the EU's policy towards Belarus is still based on the regime isolation. Nothing changes, but at the same time steps are being made to engage the country in the process. We can that the process may or may not be continued. This is a game of three players – Belarus, Russia and the EU. It's hard to say how it will end. We have certain cycles in relations with Belarus that depend on many factors. It seemed some years ago that Belarus changed its policy and the EU reacted to it. But everything then changed rapidly. However, I am sceptical about changes in the EU's policy in relation to Belarus. It is more likely to be selective engagement from both sides.

Speaking about, for example, Azerbaijan, the EU has certain claims to the processes in the country. Nevertheless, there are no questions about participation of Azerbaijan's representatives in the Eastern Partnership initiative and its summits. The Belarusian issue is more acute in this context…

It's hard to compare these two countries. I think they have differences. Azerbaijan is another country in many aspects, especially in economic development. It looks morel like Arab countries. But the EU has more common interests with Azerbaijan than with Belarus. They mostly concern energy, but we must bear in mind that these interests are clear and must be supported. We mustn't forget that the EU wants, supports and will continue to support democratic development of all Eastern Partnership countries. We need to be realistic. This policy helps us in this process.