19 March 2024, Tuesday, 11:27
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Russia can ask Lukashenka to leave his post

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Russia can ask Lukashenka to leave his post

A round-table discussion “Ukraine and Belarus in conditions of Russian aggression” was held in Kyiv.

The organiser of the round table was Maidan of Foreign Affairs – a unique organisation, which members are former Ukrainian diplomats, analysts and experts in the sphere of security and foreign affairs. This organisation is doing expert evaluation for government agencies of Ukraine.

At the conference the Ukrainian side was represented by the entire key personnel of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs – Bohdan Yaremenko, Oleksandr Khara, Oleh Belokolos, Andriy Klymenko, Yury Smelyanski, Alexei Kuropyatnik, Dzmitro Novak, representatives of the Foreign Affairs Ministry and power ministries of Ukraine, experts of some analytical centres.

Our country was represented by the leader of the civil campaign “European Belarus” Andrei Sannikov, a coordinator of “European Belarus” Zmitser Bandarenka, the editor-in-chief of charter97.org website Natalya Radzina, a number of experts in the sphere of economy and security.

Charter97.org website asked participants of the round table discussion to tell why it has become necessary to discuss the situation in Belarus and Ukraine in this context today:

Andrei Sannikov, the leader of “European Belarus” civil campaign:

- I am thankful to the organisers that this round table discussion has taken place. For a long time I accepted the logics of Ukrainians that in war-time one should think about defence of the state only, about how to hold out. It is true, but if the foundations of the future state are not laid today, the same thing as after the Orange revolution, is to repeat. Today we cannot say that first we are going to fight until the end of the war, and then to concern ourselves with our place in the world. It is wrong, and we, Belarusians, feel that very well.

Today Ukraine has gained world attention not only by the war, unleashed by Russia, but also because the Ukrainian nation made sacrifices in order to defend their freedom. So no double standards are acceptable today: a democratic Ukraine for Europe on the one hand, and businesslike approaches and the real policy for the post-Soviet space on the other.

An organiser of the conference, Bohdan Yaremenko, has formulated an answer to my question perfectly well. I asked him whether the state is changing, and he answered: “The state is not changing, and the society has changed, and it is the best guarantee that the state will change.”

It is interesting to visit Ukraine now, talk to different people, and Bohdan Yaremenko is right when he says that it could be more valuable to talk to public associations, volunteers, civil activists, than with official persons. Ukraine should realize what is its place in the democratic world, in free Europe, and not to wallow in the totalitarian Soviet past. It is extremely important for us in Belarus, but it is simply a vital necessity for Ukraine itself.

Bohdan Yaremenko, chairman of the board of Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation:

- A total misunderstanding of the uniqueness of the moment and of the regional context on the part of the Ukrainian authorities and inability of the Ukrainian diplomacy to position Ukraine as a new participant of international relations, as the country which has come through the revolution of dignity and which is developing a new policy based upon values, have forced us to hold this conference. Because of this inability, Ukraine is experiencing a lot of other problems, which are more global, including the impossibility to find the right algorithm of conversation with the Russian Federation, which would lead to more positive results for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian diplomacy is making faulty interpretation concerning Lukashenka’s regime, it denies or is not able to see not only his criminal nature in the sphere of human rights, but also underestimate the threat to Ukraine’s security, including the military one, as Alyaksandr Lukashenka is extremely dependent economically, and he would not be able to stand up against aggressive actions of Russia from the territory of his country. It is the peculiarity of the present moment in Ukraine, so we are trying to make a particular focus on a necessity to give an adequate evaluation of Lukashenka’s regime, and find the right way to work with him.

Being Moscow’s closes ally, Lukashenka should become one of the major objectives for the Ukrainian informational policy, in a sense that the Belarusian society should be well and correctly informed about the state of affairs in Ukraine, about the development of the democracy processes, what was the real reason for the revolution. Our aims are close and clear to Belarusians – the demands to live in a system without corruption, which justly distributes the national wealth, creates equal conditions for all participants of the market and society. As a public association and an alternative foreign political milieu we find that our task is to attract attention to such important strategic miscalculations towards Lukashenka’s regime in Ukrainian foreign policy.

Olexandr Khara, an analyst of Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation:

- The events in Maidan are called the revolution of dignity by us. It has shown what the most important things for the Ukrainian nation are: first of all, freedom; secondly – dignity, the third thing is prosperity. And correspondingly, speaking about these things and looking at our neighbours though the lens of the Russian aggression, Belarus comes in sight naturally.

Belarus is close to us mentally and by its language. But today we must pay attention to the regime which is ruling this country, to the threat it poses not only to its nation, but to us as well, despite all professions of the contrary. Belarus and Russia are members of the “union state”, all power structures, from the defence ministry to the KGB, and in fact one unit with the Russian system, which aggression is not to stop at the territory of Crimea and Donbas, but is to spread further. That is why we are to understand firstly the threat posed by Lukashenka’s regime, and secondly, to realize that after some time the Belarusian nation is to be liberated from the dogmas of the man-hateful ideology. And from the point of view of public sentiments, and from the point of view of the national security, Belarus is an important object, which should be paid attention to.

It should be said that Lukashenka is a master of tactics, and there are three centres between which he is manoeuvring in order to keep power and receive some preferences. They are Ukraine, Russia and the collective West. Look, as soon as Russians start to tighten the screws, slap some food products embargo, he finds allies both in Ukraine and in the European Union. One of these days a session of the Security Council of Belarus took place. The issue of plans of defence was discussed, that is, Lukashenka is not really on firm ground in the context of the Russian aggression and the changed rhetoric towards him. But in reality, his regime would not change, the structure of the economy will not be changed, the structure and attitude of power ministries to their nations and us are not going to change either.

Our government is trying to find if not an ally (which would be an exaggeration) in him, but at least a person who would behave non-aggressively. But it is impossible to rely on a tyrant. There is a good saying by Solon: “Tyranny is a good fortress, but there is no way out of it.” It is true both for Putin, who had drawn himself in such a difficult situation (and most likely he would not be able to find a way out of it), and for Lukashenka. The moves made by him have brought him into a stalemate, and generally speaking, events are verging towards a climax.

If the structure of his regime is controlled by special services and armed forces of the Russian Federation, it is possible that he would be simply asked to leave his post. This scenario failed to work in Ukraine, in spite of the fact that representatives of the FSB (the Federal Security Service), GRU(the Main Intelligence Directorate) and other special services had been infiltrated into the authorities. I do not know how much the situation is grimmer in Belarus, which considers itself Russia’s allied state. It is a question to experts on security issues and to Belarusians themselves, whether they feel themselves being a part of the so-called “Russian world” or they value independence in a free Belarus.

Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of “European Belarus” civil campaign:

- Whether we want that or not, the future of Belarus for the next 10 years is to be connected to development of the situation in Ukraine. We are not just the closest neighbour, the closest ethnic and historical relatives, but a part of a single whole. We are Eastern Europe, we are the Baltic-Black Sea Intermarium, we are the ULB, the territory of the three independent states, Ukraine, Lithuania and Belarus.

Belarusians laid high hopes on the Orange Revolution. It failed. The main reason of this failure was the small-town thinking of the leaders of the “orange” forces. It resulted not only in the downfall of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko power and return of Yanukovych, but to the loss of Crimea, and the war in eastern Ukraine. That is why we with my colleagues have already visited Ukraine several times, met with Ukrainian politicians, diplomats, public activists, journalists, trying to message across to the Ukrainian side about the importance of the Belarusian question. To solve the Ukrainian situation without Belarus is impossible. One of the main problems now is that the policy of interaction with Belarus and at the same time with Lukashenka’s regime is implemented by the same people who had been carrying out the “orange” policy.

It is a very positive thing that such an organisation as Maidan of Foreign Affairs exists in Ukraine. It unites many former diplomats, leading analysts, experts in the domain of security and international policy. And notably, these people were the first to support the revolution of dignity, while they still were at public service, who were dismissed by Yanukovych’s regime for support of Maidan and who are moral authorities. We have managed to find common ground and hold a round table discussion “Ukraine and Belarus in the conditions of Russian aggression.”

Today we advocate the necessity of normal relations between Belarus and Ukraine, we understand that economic cooperation is very important. However, we are against placing the stake on Lukashenka’s regime only, as it contradicts the national interests of Ukraine.

Today the dictator has put Belarus to the verge of the economic catastrophe, as devaluation of the Belarusian ruble would be much stronger than the one we are observing in Russia today. Lukashenka, who had been shouting about the necessity of transition to national currencies in the Customs Union, now demands absolutely the opposite, and urges to make payments to Putin’s Russia in dollars and Euro only. We explain to Ukrainians: you cannot establish relations with Lukashenka. He is a psychologically unstable man, who does not know much about economy, and whose policy is aimed at retaining the power only.

We and our Ukrainian colleagues understand that how rapidly events evolve now. It is crucial to prepare proposals for Ukrainian authorities, for the European Union and the US on the actions in our region. Such an interaction is necessary. It gives us hopes for future cooperation of the new democratic Ukraine with a new democratic Belarus, which our country is to become in the very near future, I am convinced.

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