Will Lukashenka follow Yanukovych’s path.
Recently the debate reemerged on whether the fall of dictatorships is absolutely random or if certain patterns can be identified.
Big Bang Program
In April 2011, when extremist oppositionists, who hindered the normal development of Belarusian economy, ended up in prison, the country, embodied in its Supreme Commander, adopted the five-year program of socio-economic development up to 2016. State media immediately called it a Program of Sustainable Development. However, on the sidelines, may be due to the large scale of the goals set or may be due to the fact that the Supreme approved it on 11 April – the day of the blast in Minsk subway, it got called a Big Bang Program.
Based on the achievements of the unique Belarusian economic model in 2006-2010, when the GDP grew on average by 8.5% a year (the failure of 2009 does not count, because the worldwide crisis affected the indicators), it was supremely planned that within the coming 5 years the GDP would skyrocket by 62-68% In order for this growth to be coherent and progressing, the GDP was supposed to grow by no less than 10% a year.
Problems came immediately. Belarusians will never forget the first day of the new five-year period: the monstrous blast in subway was followed by the disappearance of deposits in banks and currency in exchange points, as well as imported goods in stores, the fall in salaries (even for policemen) by 2-3 times. The exchange rate of the rouble against the USD in the first year of the five-year period fell by 3 times, but the GDP still grew by 5.5% by the official statistics, although counted in roubles. It is of course not 10%, but at least something. In 2012, in order to meet the goal, the scheme of “solvents and thinners” was made up, which means that the export of oil products was increased by smuggling. It did help, but not so much. The GDP in 2012 grew by 1.5%. 2013 is 13th as it is. The Supreme no longer demanded 10%, but asked for mere 8.5%. It came down to 0.9%. The brotherly Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) made a predictions that in 2014 Belarus’ GDP will grow by 0.5%, and in 2015 by a little more, in case of the devaluation of national currency.
The end. Like they say in Sierabranks, the five-year plan went kaput.
The situation worsens by the fact that in 2012-2013 the authorities in a voluntary manner increased salaries and other payments to the population by almost two times as compared to 2011. Like in a fairy-tale: GDP stays the same, and the salaries grow.
Recently the well-known builder of modern pyramids Sergei Mavrodi publicly accused the Belarusian dictator of plagiarism: “Lukashenka is implementing my plan. But he is shy to confess. What are they paying these super margins at the expense of? They pay the preceding at the expense of the following, as usual”. He also added: “Lukashenka is implementing it (the plan) incompetently, so the plan will be failed”. How the pyramid will not fail, when the drop in industrial outputs in the country in 2013 accounted to 4.8% and in January 2014 – already to 7.7%. At the same time the interest rate on deposits in Belarusian roubles is over 40%
What are the projects, in which the money, borrowed from Belarusians, are to be invested, so that such interest rate can be paid? Of course, they can give it to Maduro to multiply. He is in good relations with revolutionary drug lords from FARC. But coming from the fact that they are having their own Maidan gaining force in Venezuela, the friend Hugo’s successor is not doing well. Plus the arch partners of the Customs Union – Russian and Kazakhstan – have devaluated their currencies. Our own exporters have long been demanding devaluation, they cannot sell anything. But if you do devaluate, then Belarusians will run to withdraw their deposits from banks. Who will give them back their deposits after devaluation? Mavrodi put it clearly – the previous clients are paid at the expense of newcomers. But what newcomers will there be after devaluation? What remains is to promptly sell the domestic brands: MAW, BelAP, Integral, Hrodna-Azot… But this will change nothing, there are enough their own brands in Russia, but their GDP growth is zero too. I mean on the whole in the economy there is zero, but in the industries not including selling oil and gas there is a very significant negative growth. That is why they have scheduled budget sequestration at the State Duma for the coming three years.
So building pyramids is an interesting thing to do. Sometime they keep in history the name of their builder, but still a pyramid’s main sacral function is to bury the ruler.
On Miasnikovich, Prakapovich and political Chernobyl
Lukashenka signed the Big Bang program voluntarily in April 2011. It failed miserably, there is nothing to pay salaries and pensions with. But where to get the money, when the mere number of policemen per capita is seven times higher, then in the totalitarian USSR. They became pensioners at 45. The vice-Prime Minister Tozik threw in a good idea: in order not to fire policemen and KGB-ists, medicine should be made paid for all Belarusians. KGB’s secret informers are screaming from everywhere that the people are ready to revolt, since they have not been letting the steam out for many years. In the neighboring Warsaw there are 700 (!) protest actions a year, and some of these protests gather about 100 thousands people. Last year, for example, dozens of thousands of Solidarnosc trade union members protested for a several days in Warsaw, but president Komorowski did not order to disperse them with sticks, because he came from Solidarnosc himself.
What is the difference between the Orange revolution and the current Maidan in Ukraine? In 2004-2005 the Orange won with a 12% GDP growth in the background, that is why the revolution was peaceful then. In 2013 the GDP is zero. Everyone speaks of an economic disaster in Ukraine, of the necessity of new managers to come at all levels. Is the situation in Belarus different?
Why have they suddenly started speaking of a political Chernobyl? The direct analogy: technological backwardness, incompetent management, dangerous experiments with people and equipment, the inability to “lay off steam”.
The worldwide economic crisis actually exists, and in order to fight it new non-standard approaches and new leaders are needed.
It is just that in normal countries incompetent or unlucky managers quit by themselves. Since 2009 governments changed by the way of scheduled or pre-term elections in Hungary, Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland, Serbia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Japan and many other countries. Where the governments did not want to quit, including Ukraine, the old authorities were swept away by a popular outburst. This is what is called a political Chernobyl. Here too the “indispensable” Miasnikovich-Prakapovich have been working under the supervision of Haradziec collective farm’s top-manager for 20 years, carrying out dangerous experiments with the country.
It will explode…
Dzmitry Bandarenka, specially for charter97.org