Belarusian economy’s indicators look threatening.
This is how a PhD in Economics professor Barys Zhaliba commented for the charter97.org web-site on the fall of the Belarus’ GPD by 1.6%
“The government and Lukashenka should get worried. In January the GDP was also negative, while the negative industrial dynamics reached 7.1%. The explanations said it was the start of the year, the working pace was not yet established, while Russia, our major partner, was on vacations for two weeks. But we can see that the negative trend continues”, - he pointed out.
The economist added that the Ukraine-Russia conflict has its mark.
“Russia’s costs related to the invasion of the Crimea have already been estimated as billions of dollars, and those will only grow. Now the Ukrainian market is in crisis too. From the start of the year Ukraine has been poorly purchasing or not purchasing at all our tractors and MAP trucks. There are also problems with the exports of our dairy and oil products to Ukraine”, - the expert stated.
Barys Zhaliba highlighted that the first tranche of the two-billion loan has come before the New Year’s, while nothing has yet been heard of the second.
“On the one hand, Minsk may count on its being the only Russia’s ally in the West now, and the it will now be receiving all the loans. While on the other, Russia has gone into the Crimean affair so deeply that it is unknown for how long this tranche will have to be expected. Belarus should hope for its exports and foreign reserves, but we can see their perspectives ourselves – exports earnings were negative in January, while foreign reserves have been decreasing and will, probably, keep decreasing. Belarusian economy has gone from stagnation to recession, which means decline”, - the economist summarized.
We would remind that Belarus’ gross domestic product for two month of 2014 has dropped by 1.6%. The largest drop has been registered in industrial output – 5.5% and agriculture – 4%.