19 March 2024, Tuesday, 5:13
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Political scientist: If Kremlin attacks Lithuania or Poland, Lukashenka will help Russians

Political scientist: If Kremlin attacks Lithuania or Poland, Lukashenka will help Russians

To count on the Belarusian dictator for help in the war with Russia is silly.

How will the scandal around the Russian bomber destroyed by the Turks affect our region? Could the Turkish incident repeat, for example, near the border with Kaliningrad or Belarus?

Lithuanian military commentator Darius Antanaitis answered these and other questions of charter97.org in Vilnius.

- What really happened on the border of Syria and Turkey?

- I think it that what Moscow had long sought. The Syrian war acquired the status of "sacred", the Kremlin can now appeal to the feelings of people in Russia, talk about revenge for the dead soldiers. But this was not either the first or even the second time the Russian military aircraft violated the airspace of Turkey or were in dangerous proximity of it. Turkey had promised to respond harshly, but the Kremlin, like a street bully, who did not care about any bans, continued to provoke it.

Roughly speaking, lives of the two pilots were exchanged for the possibility to show the people of Russia, that the outside world was hard and terrible, that the internal problems of the Russian Federation are directly linked with the West. So now they need to fight against evil, because evil surrounds Russia. Turkey is presented as an ally of ISIS, NATO, which includes Turkey, turns out to be fighting for ISIS, too. Everyone is for ISIS -- only the Kremlin is fighting international terrorism.

- Why did Turks decide to bring down the Russian bomber?

- The Russian Federation got carried away, checking whether you can cross the line. They could do it once, twice, and here is the result. Turkey has a strong army, which, unlike the Russian army, is perfectly prepared, disciplined, armed with modern Western weapons, which are more efficient than the Russian ones. Turkey controls the Bosporus, through which Russia sends supplies to the troops involved in the Syrian campaign. Ankara may block the Russian ships from accessing this strait.

Also, Turkey's tough response is related to the fact that Russian aircraft in Syria have many times struck the rebel group, supported by Ankara. They bombed the rebels near the border with Turkey, as if to indicate that they would not hide from Russia even in the Turkish territory, Russians would get them there as well. Ankara was forced in this situation to play hard and show that President Erdogan was in charge of Turkey and not the Russian contingent from Syria which occasionally violated the country's space.

- Could the crisis be a part of Moscow's plan to destabilize the region?

- It could. You could think what you want about Russia and its leader Putin, but so far all the Kremlin's actions showed that behind an accident lies the logic and calculation. Russia annexed Crimea and gained control over most of the territory of the Black Sea.

Oil prices are falling, the budget of Russia is becoming more and more thin - Moscow leaves Ukraine alone for a while and begins to look for a new enemy. As if by order there appear tens of thousands of refugees and distract Europe from the Ukrainian crisis. Syrian President Assad makes a request for friendly help and receives the Russian military contingent. However, Russia is not the only player in Syria. There are plenty of bigger players - the United States, Turkey and NATO.

It becomes more interesting as we go. A terrorist attack is happening in the weakest NATO link today -- France. French President Hollande initiates the EU assistance clause, but does not turn to NATO for help. Thus, for a while the United States remain on the sidelines. Hollande asks for help from Vladimir Putin (the United States and Turkey somehow left aside) and forwards the only French aircraft carrier in the region where there are Russian military.

Shortly thereafter, after a warning, Turkey hits over its territory the Russian aircraft bomber. What does Putin say? He says that the plane was shot down over Syria. There is no commission, no bilateral investigation. Russian President ascertains the fact that Turkey acted aggressively against the peaceful bomber, armed with peaceful missiles and bombs.

- What will the scandal surrounding the destroyed bomber mean for our region?

- Chances are that the Kremlin will continue to implement its plan. Turkey appealed to NATO for help, but at the moment, France is in a coalition with Moscow and will block NATO decisions. Unity of the Alliance may show cracks and will to protect the external borders of such countries as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia may get significantly reduced.

In this case, Russia may get a chance to finally gain access to the only ice-free port on the Baltic Sea - Klaipėda. Although now it is, of course, impossible, but if Vladimir Putin manages to drive a wedge into the monolith of NATO with the help of France, and Article 5 of the Alliance will not be activated in the case of Turkey, then the Kremlin may well believe that the same article will not be activated, if something happens to small countries like Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Fortunately, there is one small but significant "but" - the countries that are part of the Alliance may decide to render military assistance even without France.

- And what if Moscow, angered by Ankara, will seek revenge of other NATO countries instead?

- If we assume that all that we see today in Syria is part of a gigantic plan of Moscow, it may seem that all this is a gigantic bluff. Bluff to mask the real intentions: to take the Arctic. Fomenting a war in Ukraine, Russia hoped that it will be able to draw NATO into the conflict, but to no avail. The war in Syria may also be such an attempt, so far a useless one. That is why we have seen the incident with the bomber, it is how Russia demonstrates that it might wish to punish Turkey and again provoke NATO - so that the Alliance concentrated its forces in the region.

I think that if this plan fails, the next region where the Kremlin will actively act will be the Baltic one. As soon as the Kremlin is able to disperse the NATO forces in different regions of the Alliance, and the constant provocations tire the military professionals, Russia will strike the main goal. The Arctic will be occupied, a vast region with rich deposits of valuable minerals will come under the full control of Moscow.

- Let's assume that Russia will decide to punish Turkey. What can the answer of the Northern Alliance be?

- Turkey is a powerful enough country. Besides, it is a NATO member and a valued partner of the European Community. Even without France, NATO is able to unanimously react to such a threat, answering with all its forces. The forces that are many times superior to the Russian army.

- The Turks shot down a military plane that violated their airspace, and how is the current situation with protection of our region's airspace?

- At the moment, the airspace over the Baltic states is actually open and defenseless (except for a few NATO fighters on duty). Poland is thinking about purchasing an American anti-aircraft missile system "Patriot", but the whole process is at an early stage. The Baltic countries are only armed with small range of MANPADS. The only help are the US Navy ships with air and missile defense systems.

- Russian military aircraft frequently violate the airspace of the Baltic States. Can the Turkish incident repeat, for example, near the border with Kaliningrad or Belarus?

- It's quite realistic. If Putin's plan fails in Turkey, he will turn his attention to the Baltic countries, especially that the Kaliningrad region is literally filled with ballistic and anti-aircraft missiles. It means that de facto Russia controls our airspace. However, to somehow draw Belarus in this plan, the Russian president will undoubtedly have to sacrifice a lot. It is much easier to start acting from the territory of the Russian Federation, which is close to the Baltic States. This way will be much faster, cheaper and more efficient.

- What role in the actions of the Kremlin is prepared for Belarus?

- In my opinion, Belarus today acts for Russia as a "safety cushion", which is to take the entire blow and soften it, in case something happens. That is why the Kremlin has not yet annexed this country. Ukraine, by the way, was a similar "pillow". According to Russia, military action is best done in the territory of the "allies." Here I would like to point out that, unlike Russia, NATO is expanding because of the danger of attack, primarily from Russia, which it demonstrated several times in the recent past by its actions in relation to the countries that did not have time or were unable to do their "homework" to ensure security after the withdrawal from the Soviet Union and remained neutral. The EU and NATO are interested in the neighboring countries being stable and prosperous. Unlike them, the Kremlin wants to see neighboring countries weak, even better under the rule of either a dictator or their puppet.

In case of conflict between Moscow and the Baltic states, the primary goal for the Army of the Russian Federation is to cut Lithuania from Poland. That is to occupy the territory of Belarus and Kaliningrad. Will Russia dare to occupy Belarus to achieve this? Hardly... For the Belarusian side it is unbeneficial to get involved in any war. Most likely, Minsk will remain neutral. This will allow to get supplies to Russian troops and share intelligence information.

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