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Zmitser Bandarenka: We'll defend Belarus's independence with arms if necessary

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Zmitser Bandarenka: We'll defend Belarus's independence with arms if necessary
Photo: AFP

Russia's pressure on neighbouring countries will grow.

Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of European Belarus civil campaign, said it in an interview with charter97.org.

– The vector of the European policy towards the Lukashenka regime is obviously changing. You know well how concessions to the dictator usually end. A brutal crackdown on opposition activists took place in 2010 after another round of negotiations between Lukashenka and the West. You were jailed. Did you expect the West to repeat the same mistakes again?

– Honestly, I didn't expect it. The 2010 presidential elections and the 2011 crisis show the weakness of the Lukashenka regime and the strength of opposition. The West's policy towards the dictatorship was weak and spineless despite the fact that the regime of Lukasshenka was in the financial pit and was stifling without financial aid. I asked an American politician why the US didn't help Belarusian opposition, and he answered honestly: “We do the same thing in Belarus as we do in Ukraine. Nothing.”

Being unable to solve the problem of the Belarusian dictatorship, the West has found itself not prepared for a more dramatic situation in Ukraine and … returned to its old policy. This is not the new vector. This is the old policy towards dictators, which led, as former NATO general secretary Rasmussen said, to the “arc of crisis” inside the European Union.

They again try to “stabilise” the dictator who tightens screws in the country, opens new concentration camps (labour correctional centres and jails for drug addicts). Of course, social outburst will happen, because people don't want to tolerate it. It will be a surprise for bureaucrats in the West.

– The EU's policy towards the regime has been wrong from the point of view of independent experts and Belarusian opposition for as long as the Lukashenka dictatorship exists. Is there a right example of western policy towards the dictatorship?

– Yes, there was a successful example. It was the policy by Ronald Reagan and his team that didn't listen to Sovietologists signing hallelujah to the power of the communist Soviet Union and military achievements of Brezhnev and Andropov. The team was doing its work and cut the ground from under the feet of the “empire of evil” through oil prices and the arms race.

But Reagan was criticised. Both German and French politicians as well as left-wing intellectuals in the US regarded him as a stupid and wrong politician. Unfortunately, successors of these “intellectuals” have come to power in Europe and the US.

– Lukashenka said in his recent interview with Bloomberg that he expected financial aid from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF loan already saved the Lukashenka regime from a default in 2009. Is the Save operation repeated?

– Lukashenka had to sell Beltransgaz to Russia to pay off the first IMF loan. Those politicians in the West who think the IMF loan can help to untie Lukashenka from Russia only help to increase the dependence.

Lukashenka will have to sell Russia Belaruskali or its significant stake to pay off the second IMF loan if it is issued. Even the official statistics shows that the economy has not been developing for the past five years. It is falling.

Lukashenka behaves like an alcoholic who sells his parents' jewellery and flat. Having sold Beltransgaz to Russians, he sold what doesn't belong to him. It is the national heritage of Belarusians, also of our future generations.

– Lukashenka said 2.5 billion dollars would be enough for him. Is it really enough, taking into account the poor economic situation in Belarus?

– When the IMF issues a loan, private banks give twice as many loans to the state, banks and plants. But all banks are state-owned in Belarus.

I'd like to note that he cannot pay the loan by selling nothing of Belarus's property. It is a mistake to think that the West's loan can help Lukashenka become more independent from Russia. On the contrary, his dependence on Russia will grow. We already saw it when he sold Beltransgaz. If Belarus decides to buy liquefied gas at Baltic ports in future, it won't be able to do it without a conflict, because Belarus's entire gas pipeline system belongs to the Russian Federation.

– The economic situation in Belarus is critical: plants work shorter weeks, lay off workers and delay wages. Record high unemployment is expected. At the same time, the law on “social parasitism” is adopted. Isn't it schizophrenic?

– Lukashenka decided to earn on people's problems in the economic catastrophe. People lose work due to his policy and cannot fulfil themselves, don't want to register at the fake unemployment centre and get an allowance of a few dollars, but the authorities want to scare and humiliate them. Consequences will be sad. The social outburst is inevitable.

- Another so-called presidential election is to take place in Belarus this year. “European Belarus” civil campaign was one of the first to state that this farce should be boycotted. Now more and more political subjects of Belarus agree to that, including the former presidential candidate Milinkevich? Is idea of the boycott going to prevail?

– We perfectly understand moods in Belarusian society. After the broken hopes of 2010, Belarusians boycotted the so called local and parliamentary elections. Of course, they won't join this circus organised by Yarmoshyna.

In 2010, we ran in the elections mostly to give people an opportunity to express their views in streets and defend the country's independence. It was 50,000 Belarusians who took to streets with white-red-white flags and patriotic slogans that stopped Russia's desire to annex Belarus without much noise. We gave the opportunity to take to streets. There are no political forces in Belarus today able to organise pass protests. So, a boycott is the only way out.

People should understand that the legitimacy of the regime is in their hands. If they don't vote in the elections, Lukashenka's position will weaken.

– It's a new situation now. Will Russia use the elections in its interests?

– Russia's pressure on neighbouring states, first of all Ukraine and Belarus, will only grow regardless the elections. Scaring neighbouring countries wasn't Putin's only aim of the army re-equipment and raising military spending.

The aims were announced a long time ago, in the 1990s: to correct the mistake of the perestroika and restore the Soviet Union as a geopolitical reality of a new kind. The threat to Belarus's independence will only grow.

– How can we resist it?

– We will defend the country' independence with arms, in the way Ukrainians do it, if necessary. Russians should understand that the price of the independence of Belarus is high. They will face resistance.

We will find the support of thousands of Ukrainian volunteers who will help us in case of clear aggression against Belarus, and we will get help from civilised countries. After Ukraine, the West won't be able to watch calmly at the attack on Belarus, because it will be a direct threat to the Baltic States and Poland, which are NATO members.

We will have to do what our ancestors did for many centuries – take arms to struggle for our independence against the assault from the East.

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