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Roman Bezsmertnyi: Lukashenka feels danger

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Roman Bezsmertnyi: Lukashenka feels danger

Belarus will face an economic crisis and cuts of preferences from Russia.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka said in an interview with Bloomberg that Belarus would never become a part of Russia and threatened the Kremlin with a harsh reaction to an attempt of a military incursion into the country. Why did the Belarusian dictator speak about it in public? What does it mean? What developments are possible? Roman Bezsmertnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to Belarus in 2010-2011 talked to gordonua.com about it.

– It's hard to believe in the lack of contacts between Lukashenka and Putin. He might have had comprehensive answers about a possible aggression from the Russian president himself. Nevertheless, he raised the topic in public, moreover, he said it to a western media outlet. Does it mean there's no smoke without fire and the threat really exists?

– It's a mistake to think that Lukashenka and Putin have enough contacts. Their relations have always been strained. You need to understand Putin's character, who didn't forgive Lukashenka for his periodical critical remarks about Putin. I know that there was a two-year period when they don't talk to each other. Lukashenka had to wait for Putin at Russian resorts almost for days.

But we also need to understand Lukashenka's mentality. I talked to him several times, and I can say he is ready to do everything to get another preference from Moscow. He have to beg it, because the entire Belarusian economy belongs to Putin or his oligarchs directly or indirectly. These are Bank Moscow-Minsk, oil refineries in Mozyr and Navapolatsk, Beltransgaz. The only company that is still owned by the state is Belaruskali potash producer, which Russia and China want to buy. Such plants as MAZ and BelAZ, which Lukashenka likes to boast about, have an overstock of 60%.

The economic situation is worsening. Lukashenka understands that Russia will raise gas and oil prices next year. He sends, let's say, anti-Russian messages that would allow him to build a bridge for communication with the West. It's no coincidence that Belarusian foreign minister Uladzimir Makei has been carrying out “secret” diplomatic activities with western states and actively looking for access to Europe for the last six months. For example, he has met with Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite two times this year.

In your opinion, why was Lukashenka so happy to accept a proposal to hold talks over the Ukrainian crisis in Minsk? You remember how hospitable he was during the talks in the Belarusian capital. It's because the meeting was his chance to talk to western leaders about lifting sanctions from his country. The US lifted sanctions a month ago from a number of companies belonging to Lukashenka's cronies. That's why we hear western notes in his rhetoric.

On the other hand, Russian nationalists have become active in Belarus for the last 20 years. For example, leaflets and newspapers are being distributed in Homel and Vitsebsk regions, saying that they are “native Russian lands” that never belonged to Belarus. The same groups “work” in Minsk. Those who don't believe me can visit the Belarusian sector of Facebook. Unlike the Ukrainian one, it used to be pure and refined, but now it is being bombed by Russian nationalistic calls. Aliaksandr Lukashenka feels a danger. He began to worry and make statements. He even spoke in Belarusian in public, which he has never done for the last 20 years.

Even bearing all these facts in mind, I think that Lukashenka's statement is a theatre and he is just an actor who fulfils orders from Moscow. Moreover, the role of the Minsk talks on the solution to the Donbas conflict and Lukashenka's behaviour are only a script of Moscow. Its sense is to use Minsk for diplomatic battles, involving Europe and Ukraine but cutting the US off the negotiations. It doomed the negotiation process to failure from the very beginning. It guarantees the continuation of the conflict and varnishes Lukashenka's image in the eyes of the West.

– His position is more or less clear. Do current Russian leaders have any plans to annex Belarus? It is especially important because the Kremlin has been talking about the seizure of the Baltic States and threatening Finland and Poland.

– If Putin fails to explode the situation in Latvia, where developments on the Donbas scenario are possible, this spring and autumn, I do not rule out that he can enter Belarus and occupy Vitebsk and Homel regions. Belarusians should have thought about it, but they missed the moment when it was possible to get off the Eurasian train. It was possible to do it a year ago, when they didn't swallow the EurAsEC bait.

– How many Russian troops are in Belarus now?

– Two radar stations and a number of air bases with five squadrons.

– There are plans to open another Russian air base with modern aircraft this year, aren't they?

– They always do so, because Belarus doesn't have its own base to maintain former Soviet aircraft.

– What is today's state of the Belarusian army?

– To be short, they have what to show at a parade. But I'm afraid they can only show their army. It was enough to stamp your foot three times to defeat the Ukrainian army before the Donbas conflict, but it's enough to stamp two times to defeat the Belarusian army.

– Does it mean that Lukashenka's words “Whoever comes to us with a sword will die from a sword. We will fight against Europeans, Americans, Russians, against anybody who will try to conquer this land where Belarusians should live” are only bravado?

– Yes, they are. What else can be said by the person who has been considered by the West as a dictator, a kind of Gaddafi light?

– Will Belarusians defend themselves? The country is so nostalgic for the Soviet Union.

– If we look at their mentality, Belarusians are more Europeans than Ukrainians are, but they are less socially active. They are absolutely law abiding, they are always ready to play by the rules, they study quickly. We need to understand that Belarus is under the influence of great humanitarian expansion of Lithuania. Many books there say that Belarusians are “slavinised” Lithuanians. Even old Russian and old Lithuanian dukes Vladimir, Algirdas and Mindaugas are Belarusians. The theme of Belarusian nationalism is alive, but it is absolutely European and civilised. It is not aggressive. The European character of Belarusians is felt everywhere. I have many friends in Belarus, and they are very restrained about the “unity of three Slavic nations”. They say not to confuse Belarusians with “Russians in bast shoes” or “corrupted Kyiv”. We are Europe, they say. Belarus will become a European state in no time as soon as Lukashenka quits. As for the desire to defend themselves, it is a difficult question. Europeans are very lazy in what concerns fights and wars. They want the army and military rather than civilians to do it.

– How will the West react to Putin's possible attack on Belarus, taking into account its old dislike for Lukashenka?

– In the way it reacted to the Ukrainian conflict. They will make statements, condemn and express concerns. The matter is not the country. The matter is territorial integrity. Moreover, Belarus is one of the UN founding members.

Photo: PHL

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