Leanid Zaika: Chinese use Belarus to settle their “bachelors”

The loan of 7 bn is still not enough, and pragmatic China has designs upon Belarus.

It’s an opinion of an economist Leanid Zaika he expressed to charter97.org.

- Will the Chinese loan be enough for us? It’s a question to “the father of democracy” from the novel by Ilf and Petrov, “The Golden Calf”. The money won’t be enough certainly. This money won’t solve any our problems. Today the money is to be used for plugging some holes, to repay debts, which are 4 bn for today, and it’s only the external debt. And now the internal debt starts to grow as well, as the financial gap in the industrial sector is emerging.

The situation is strange. This money is certainly necessary, and we have been discussing these sums, and quite for a long time. This money is to be used for the situation from January 1 on to become a little more comfortable for officials. And the same problem is to start again since January 2, – the economist believes.

- What do the Chinese want in return?

- The Chinese are very pragmatic. They are interested in the potassium plant. They are interested in the wheeled tractor plant. Meanwhile, Japanese are really worried that Belarusians could sell the plant to Chinese, as in such a case Chinese are going to have good chassis for their nuclear missile program. Chinese are interested in the land itself, and an opportunity for children of top officials to settle there. It’s Europe after all. People drink coffee here, and even Internet is freer here. That is why part of the Chinese elite has such interests here. They also have interests related to long-term goals. And in general, there is a purely Communist interest. Belarus is a country of a specific late European socialism, and China is a modern, new Asian Socialism. That is why, according to a saying, “Communists of all countries of the world, unite!” It works.

- Is the wheeled tractor plant such an important strategic military object?

- The matter is, incredible as it may seem, Belarus occupied a rather important place in the military and industrial complex of the Soviet Union in a number of sophisticated items. I didn’t know that, we had been told about that by Zyuganov. One of the plants manufacturing solid rocket fuel is situated in Belarus, it is highly important. I looked into this matter: 90% of all missiles in the Soviet Union, even the ancient museum exhibits, had been created on a chassis of the wheeled tractors. China also needs potassium fertilizers, that is why they would be happy to buy this enterprise.

- Are there any other interests of China in Belarus, in addition to economic ones?

- There is one problem which could cause a strange response from many people. In China demographic balance has changed. Over the last 15 years the number of boys born in China, who have become men, have been much higher that the number of girls. Now China is going to have a great potential of bachelors. It is strange. But it could mean different things for China: either they should introduce polyandry, or to solve the problem of this misbalance in some other way. When we worked in China, we discussed with my foreign colleagues the fact that it could result in a huge problem. Let’s say, half a million of Chinese “bridegrooms” come to live in Belarus – and our girls rush to marry them. At the moment one can find marriage advertisements where men aged “from 19 to 99” are searched, it means there is demand. Belarus could become attractive as a place for settlement of a part of young Chinese resources, their “bachelors.”