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Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski: All countries of Central and Eastern Europe are under threat of Russian aggression

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Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski: All countries of Central and Eastern Europe are under threat of Russian aggression
PRZEMYSŁAW ŻURAWSKI VEL GRAJEWSKI

Aggression in eastern Ukraine should cost Russia as much as possible.

Such an opinion has been expressed in an interview to charter97.org website by a scientist of the University of Łódź, an expert in global politics and security issues Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski (Poland).

– You are one of the leading experts of Poland. Now your country is on the threshold of political changes. To your mind, what is the difference between the approaches of the Law and Justice party and the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) in the foreign policy?

- First of all, it is a wide involvement of the Law and Justice Party in the regional policy of Central and Eastern Europe. There have been different periods, but one should recall that in 2008 – 2013 the Civic Platform declared ideas of strategic rapprochement with Russia – easing strain in the relations with this country. And the Law and Justice have always been mistrustful of Russia. And I think that as long as this position found confirmation in 2014, the situation shows that there would not be any easing in the policy towards Russia.

And the further consequences are following from that: firstly, recognition of the fact that all nations of Central and Eastern Europe are under threat of Russian expansion. That is why Belarus, and undoubtedly, Ukraine, the Baltic States, Moldova, in some measure Romania, Georgia, Finland – should cooperate, in order to stop the Russian expansion. And this implies “an Atlantic option”, that is, recognition of the fact that the key factor of military stability in Europe is the power of the US army.

After 2008, in the period of the Civic Platform in power, a certain cooling, or even “fading” in Polish-American relations took place (not without participation of Americans, as the context of this process was American-Russian “reset”). But that brief “reset” ended, and Poland has a hope to attract attention of the US to problems of Central Europe again, and benefit from that. Not only Poland, but Romania and the Baltic States are interested in that, and all of this allows supposing that political activities in this direction are going to be successful.

I also think that the Law and Justice is to demonstrate a more get-tough policy inside the European Union, without a search of any “conflicts”, as there is nothing to nothing to quarrel over, one can only cooperate. But it is already unacceptable for Poland to have no position of its own in the EU, as previously it was just waiting for German and French decisions, and adjusted its policy to them. Poland has its interests, and they should be taken into account in all negotiation processes. It is especially true when the Russian aggression against Ukraine is concerned; talks on it are held in German-Russia-French format only, without participation of Central Europe (not only Poland is meant). In this situation the position of Poland should be respected as well, and it should have access to decision-making alongside with other countries. And for the moment in the talks of such a type – which are held without being agreed with the legal norms of the European Union, by the way, – not a single state bordering on Russia or Ukraine participates. And it is at least surprising.

I think that the key area of activity for the Law and Justice government, if it is formed after the parliamentary election, is to become strengthening of Poland’s influence in the region. Poland won’t be aspiring to become an average participant of the “great powers” league of the European Union, and at the same time isolated from its region. Poland is rather to try to become a state which would be able to unite our neighbours in the region, making actions to defend common interests and receiving their support due to these actions. Poland is also to seek restoration of cooperation – primarily a military one – with the US, and, together with its partners in the region, and to counteract the Russian policy, which we, drawing practical conclusions from the situation, should not trust.

- You say that in the relations with Ukraine a policy that could stop Russia should be conducted. Is cooperation with dictatorships like Belarusian possible for that, which we are observing today, when Lukashenka uses the war in Ukraine to his advantage?

- We have two levels of policy here, and a special approach should be found for each of them. The first one is interstate policy, relations between diplomacies. And it is obvious that the Belarusian state is under the dictatorial power of Alyaksandr Lukashenka now. And there is no other state at the moment, unfortunately. And we have to maintain some neighbourly relations with this state. One should also remember that, whether we like it or not, the Russian aggression against Ukraine has allowed Lukashenka to look a less controversial dictator against this background.

An illustration of this is at least the fact that the talks are held in Minsk. And just a year ago no one from European politicians wanted to find himself or herself in a group photo or a video with Lukashenka. And as a result of the Russian aggression Lukashenka seems more “digestible” for the West. And this context, this situation is a given. I do not say that it is good, I am simply describing it. And it should be taken into account.

At the same time on the other level, which is, if you ask me, more important and fundamental, that is, at the level of relations with the Belarusian nation, a basic principle of the Polish diplomacy should be present. That is: no talks on the subject of Belarus with Russia. Such things are impossible: to take some decisions with a third-party, imperialist state, behind the back of Belarusians.

And secondly: the decisive factor in the Polish-Belarusian relations – the relations between the nations, not the states – is a cultural and historical dimension. I believe that both the Polish state and Polish public associations in interaction with Belarusian democratic structures should invest in development of the common cultural and historical memory of Poland and Belarus. In other words, in films, cultural events, feature films. I would say: if it were possible to create Belarusian films about the Battle of Orsha, or Bulak-Balachovich, or Francis Skaryna, to create works of art which would remind Belarusians about their historical greatness and their own civilizational achievements, – that’s the task which should be joined by Poland. And it is the level of work to lay foundation for educational activities in Poland itself. As Poland also needs more knowledge about how many things united us historically, and how we created our common civilization together. And its legacy is a legacy of freedom, which is one of the most impressive worldwide. And this level of educational, historical, cultural policy is not only a task for diplomats of the Foreign Affairs Ministry, but also, and primarily, for the Ministry of Culture.

And the third dimension, which could not be recalled without embarrassment for the Polish side is a necessity to clear the Polish state machinery of remnants of the Communist epoch, so that the compromising situations as the situation with Ales Byalyatski (when Polish state services passed information to the punitive agencies of Lukashenka’s dictatorship) would not repeat. The information was later used by Lukashenka for crackdown on opposition. This must not occur again. Such things should be eradicated with maximum harshness, as it discredits Poland.

- To your mind, what should be changed in the Polish Army in connection with the war in Ukraine?

- It is a difficult process, if for no other reason than because it is easy to destroy something, and it is difficult to restore. Poland has suspended compulsory universal military service, and because of that now problems with the resources in men in the Polish Army are obvious. Now we are going to correct that. At the moment, to my mind, it is impossible to pass a political decision to restore the universal military draft. That is why we have to create a new system of reserve training.

I think that another important task is to reach a due technical level of air and ABM defence. And most efforts are to be focused on that in the near future. The priority in solving defence tasks is directly determined by the factor of time and money, which are needed to be spent on that. That is why among many tasks we have, these two – creating an effective air defence and restoration of mobilization capabilities of the Polish Army – are to be performed in the first place.

A modern trend, maintenance of cyber- security of the state, is closely related to the defence tasks as well. Let us take the Estonian events of 2007, for example, when state agencies of Estonia were attacked by Russia in the framework of a cyber-war. That is why it is necessary to get prepared for possible challenges in this sphere at an adequate level.

The defence tasks properly are bordering on the issues of military geopolitics. There are no doubts that Poland is going to promote Newport plus doctrine, which means exceeding the limits set by the last NATO summit in Wales. And according to Poland, this pushing the limits means positioning contingent of the US army in the countries of Central Europe, that is, in Poland, the Baltic States and Romania. And we are going to strive for that.

- At the beginning of the year Obama administration announced that it is necessary to close 15 military bases of the US across Europe with a view to economy. How could such decision have been adopted, while there is a war going on in Europe in fact?

- It is rather a question to the administration of the US president. Unfortunately, it is beyond the competence of Poland to adopt decisions in this sphere. I believe that the policy of the US, founded on rapprochement with Russia, has proved to be a strategic mistake, which should be corrected against the background of destabilizing situation, speaking in geostrategic terms.

Besides, one should remember that moving military bases from the “old” NATO states, such as Germany, to Poland, is not going to be easy from socio-economic considerations as well. Military bases are a serious factor in the labour market, they provide jobs for a great quantity of people. Undoubtedly, it is to bring about a conflict of interests inside the NATO, as the “old” states of the alliance will be reluctant to part with the US bases on their territory. Though there are no military reasons for their staying there, and not in the “new” NATO countries.

So far one could only say that the decision to liquidate 15 military contingents in the future was a strategic mistake, but it was not a decision of Poland. Poland’s decision was to curtail military forces, which started in 1991. And it was a large-scale reduction, which touched upon 80% of military forces. Now it is obvious that it was a lightheaded decision, and it had not considering a possible development of the international situation. And it has to be mended.

- The question which worries many people now: should lethal arms be supplied to Ukraine?

- Definitely yes. And Poland must do that as its national initiative, not waiting for approval from its allies. It is necessary to supply effective weapons to Ukraine in the quantity Poland is capable of.

It is clear that Poland does not possesses a powerful armoury of sophisticated weapons, and at the moment I am not ready to say yet which exactly military equipment should be supplied, but it is obvious that there should be no restrictions in this question. Ukraine is a sovereign state, and it had been attacked, and has become a state-victim of an aggression. And this aggression should cost as much as possible for Russia.

I would say in a somewhat brutal and undiplomatic way, but every Russian soldier and every item of military equipment, destroyed in Ukraine, will not appear in any other state. That is why it is in the best interests of Poland and the entire region to make the cost of the aggression in eastern Ukraine for Russia as high as possible. Words of support are not enough for Ukrainians, they should be given effective means of warfare, and as many as Poland can.

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