Leanid Zaika: Almost all Smart Belarusians “Went Off To Join Guerrilla Forces”

Instead of getting taxes from the “social parasites”, the authorities came across with 400 thousand citizens, opposed to them.

Economist, head of the analytical center “Strategy” Leanid Zaika has commented upon the amendments of the labour legislation of Belarus, which came into force on October 24, in an interview to charter97.org.

– According to the updated version of the law, “social parasites” are supposed to find jobs by themselves. Also, the period of being registered as an unemployed was decreased twice – from 36 to 18 months.

– The amendment which provides for the independent job seeking by the unemployed is grounded, as an unemployed is a person who is looking for a job, not the one sitting there smoking a cigar. The concept of “spinning round” better corresponds with the western model, although the unemployment benefits remained the same. The benefits are approximately equal to the price of a good cigar of a neighbouring country’s Prime Minister. The benefits do not reflect any economic sense, they do not allow a person to live on this a dozen and a half dollars.

A figure of 18 months seems closer to the standards which exist abroad. There is cyclical unemployment, an unemployment in a chronic form, so 1,5 years remains a normal term for changing the status of the unemployed. There are certainly plenty of moments of doubt, in terms of, and what is the reason for dismissals? And what about the trade unions? Why did they fail to discuss this problem? There is also the aspect of unemployment insurance. Who will pay the insurance? That is why it’s not the cosmetic changes that remain the key moments, and the most important issue is building up the national system of the unemployment insurance.

The second point is introduction of a system under which benefits will amount to 40–70%, and even more, of wages. This is what should be done. And the third point – the change of the unemployment diagnosis system – the transition to the methods of the international labour organization.

I would also like to add that, given all this, the most important is that the trade unions should handle it, and the insurance companies should insure, pay money from the budget…

– You told in 2015, that all “social parasites” will probably go off to join “guerrillas”. Has your prognosis proved itself correct?

– Almost all the smart people went off to join the “guerrillas”, as for the “social parasites”, according to former PM, today’s senator Mikhail Miasnikovich, there are 450–500 thousand of them. The government has been calculated for a while, probably, they had no calculators, and it turned out that 30–40 thousand out of this number were on the verge of being recognized “social parasites”. So, let it be so that 50 thousand confessed, and this is a clear over-estimation, the government calculated 450 thousand, let us take the authorities’ estimation and those who came to surrender, that makes minus 50 thousand, so there remains some 400 thousand “guerrillas” hiding in the woods. Let anyone try to refute my words.

– In general, what will the changes in the labour legislation lead to?

– You know, the normal unemployment in Belarus is about some 12–15%. If you look at the research of sociologists, they define approximately this figure. Plus, those who left to work abroad should not be considered the unemployed: to the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia. The number of those who left to work abroad falls short of a million. And these people can be listed as unemployed by the government, although in fact they are the ones who make money fast. In this respect, nothing was done in favor of the people and the labor within the framework of this new integrated community.