Gregory Mesezhnikov: Austria lobbied for the removal of sanctions on Belarusian dictatorship

Lukashenka can consider the lifting of sanctions as a carte blanche for new repression.

This is what the director of the Slovak Institute of Public Policy Gregory Mesezhnikov said in an interview to charter97.org, commenting on the situation around the removal of the majority of sanctions against the Lukashenka regime.

- The sanctions were lifted only recently, but it has already become known that the official Minsk is demanding from Europe to stop supporting independent Belarusian media. How far can the Lukashenka regime go in the sense of impunity following the lifting of sanctions?

- The facts which you have brought up just now show the fallacy of this step -- the lifting of sanctions. If immediately after the lifting of the sanctions the regime is beginning to show inclinations in the opposite direction of democracy, it just says that this decision was not only reckless, but deeply flawed at its core.

Sanctions, when they were introduced, were conditioned by specific requirements: not only the release and rehabilitation of political prisoners, but also the political transformation of the regime -- change in the electoral practice and in respect for human rights. The European Union, in fact, refused to fulfill their own requirements.

If someone in Europe expected some benefit from the lifting of sanctions -- I have to disappoint them: there will be no short-term benefits from it whatsoever. The main motive was the so-called geopolitical considerations, and it is here that the underestimation of the relationship between Lukashenka and Russian took place. To expect Lukashenka to play a more acceptable role for the EU in the context of Russian-Ukrainian conflict is unfounded.

Particularly worrying is the fact that this decision was made not just by European bureaucrats and European officials, but it is rather a trend with a certain part of the European political elite. The decision was made at the level of certain political players in major EU countries.

Nevertheless, we must continue doing what human rights activists and democratic forces are doing: try to take advantage of the opportunities that exist in the European Union. As far as I know, not all of the political forces supported the lifting of sanctions. There are major leaders and some factions in the European Parliament which have expressed doubts.

In addition, many of the major EU politicians are not sufficiently informed about the situation in Belarus or they are affected by the regime, which enjoys all the opportunities to push its interests.

- Which specific politicians and forces in the West doubt the correctness of the decision to lift sanctions against Lukashenka?

- You need to look at countries individually: how their political leaders came to the decision to maintain or lift the sanctions. Since the decisions are taken unanimously, this was preceded by a period of consultations and discussion.

As to the information from the backstage – it was Austria has lobbied softer approach, i.e. the lifting of sanctions. But Martin Schulz - representative of the German Social Democrats and the chairman of the European Parliament - is critical of the decision to lift the sanctions.

- You said that there would even be no short-term benefits for the EU from the lifting of sanctions, and there was a re-evaluation of Lukashenka's role in his relationship with Putin. Will the European politicians sober up after the adoption of the new military doctrine of the "union state" of Belarus and Russia, which was brought up immediately after the lifting of sanctions?

- It is yet another confirmation that the abolition of sanctions the way it was conducted was a wrong decision, because if considerations "for the lifting of sanctions" lay in the geopolitical plane, the result was the opposite.

Even if there was no statement about the preparation of the military doctrine of the "union state" of Belarus and Russia, the analysis of the situation in the sphere of defense leaves no room for doubt: Belarus is an actual ally of Russia.

Geopolitical considerations proved to be illusory. The opinion that Belarus will be less tied to Russia does not take account of the real state of affairs.

- If the lifting of sanctions already did not bring the expected results - what should the European politicians who made this decision and the Belarusian opposition do?

- Since the EU has already lifted the sanctions, its main responsibility is now to keep the situation from deteriorating. Lukashenka may view the lifting of sanctions as a some kind of carte blanche, which may allow him to act more freely in relation to human rights activists and opposition.

In other words, for the EU to not completely lose its face, it now needs to insist on no further deterioration to occur. Therefore, for the Belarusian human rights activists and democrats, it is very important to quickly inform about such impairments the European public and Western politicians.

I know from personal experience that the political representatives of the EU countries are critical of what happened and is happening in Belarus. For them, of course, this educational and informational work of the Belarusian human rights defenders and independent media will be a great help in case of any disputes inside the European political elite itself, it will be easier to argue with supporters of a softer attitude to such regimes.

In my opinion, the decision to lift the sanctions was made in the state of information vacuum. The EU does not regularly make decisions behind closed doors, but this was something made not to attract the attention of the public. The lifting of sanctions is always preceded by some kind of debate, it is written about, discussed, and here it was somehow quiet. Even the part of the European public, which usually pays attention to it, was not able to follow this discussion.

- How can we overcome this information vacuum?

- It will be a little difficult, because decisions are taken at a high level. But I will say this: it is necessary to create a lobby - a lobby in a good sense, the Belarusian lobby in the European organizations representing the interests of civil society in Belarus and democratic forces. I understand that this is difficult and the regime is trying to limit the communication between the political forces in the EU and the Belarusian democrats, but it must be done and create groups, which could inform the European public and the political elite.

When Slovakia in the mid 90s faced similar problems, and we were the only EU country that was an associate member, the candidate country, which did not meet the criteria for joining the EU, the Slovak Democrats and representatives of civil society worked in a very close unit with Brussels-- with the European institutions, the EU and the European Parliament and political parties. Slovak Democrats constantly traveled to Brussels to inform it about the situation. Brussels took political decision against Vladimir Meciar, our authoritarian leader. And it really helped. The EU was very well informed about what was happening in Slovakia, and all attempts of the then government to weave a plot had no political results.