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Senseless Staffquakes

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Senseless Staffquakes

Will the government be dismissed for "red array"?

In the first half of the year the government planned to bring the economy out of the recession. In fact, the results differ - official data of the first six months prove the situation is in a red zone: in particular, in January-June the GDP decreased by 2.5% .

According to experts, the economic downturn could be even greater, given that the current government has restricted directed lending to enterprises.

Earlier, in case of poor performance of the economy in first six months the dictator threatened with the resignation of the government. Will it come to staff shifts?

The quarter passed, but the colour of the matrix rest the same.

According to the government plan, all materials on the results of the ministries and departments should be represented to the Council of Ministers by 26 July. In the first decade of August economic results of the first half of the year will be considered by the Council of Ministers.

Then, as is quite common, the government will give an account to the dictator for the results of the first half of the year. The last time, in April, when the economic results of the first quarter were summed up at the meeting in the Palace of Independence, Aliaksandr Lukashenka was, not pleased with results, to put it mildly.

Results of the first six months, on the one hand, are more promising than that in the first quarter. It will be recalled that then the GDP fell by 3.7%, in first six months - by 2.5%.

On the other hand, the actual results of the economy in the first six months are far from those figures the government has planned to achieve.

According to official forecasts, in January-June the economy should have come out of a recession and started to grow steadily in the second half of the year. However, many indicators of the government's plan turned to be in the red zone, i.e. are not being fulfilled.

The official forecast approved for 2016 expected that the export of Belarusian goods and services for January-June would increase by 1.3%, and the latest figures for January-May show that it has decreased by 16.5%. It is unlikely that the figure will significantly change for the better before the government betakes itself to Lukashenka with the report.

Money incomes of the population was planned to pull up to the level of the last year, but they dropped. According to recent data published by the Statistics Committee a week ago, real incomes of the population fell by 7% in January-May.

In general, the data on the results in the economy for the first half year submitted to Lukashenka will indicate non-compliance with target figures.

By the way, in April the dictator expressed extreme discontent with the fact that the implementation of the indicator, under which he put his signature, failed.

"Red colour indicates goals failed, the blue - a progress. The paper is generally in red... You still have a quarter to regroup and show corresponding results. If not, other people come and do it", Aliaksandr Lukashenka warned the government in April.

Since then three months have passed. Will the progress review come up to staffquakes at government level?

Senseless Staffquakes

The current government works only a year and a half. During this period, the Council of Ministers has not shown much enthusiasm to fulfill tasks. Despite the presidential elections, the gross domestic product and incomes of the population declined last year.

The main objective of the current government is to preserve a fragile macroeconomic stability, and there is some progress - the inflation gradually cools down.

Experts doubt that a different make-up of government will be able to show better results and given inflation reduction to ensure economic growth in the country.

"The decline of GDP by 2.5% in the first half year is still a good result, it could be even greater. The decline of the Belarusian GDP is the cost of structural changes in the economy which took the form of limited budget support to enterprises ", Heorhi Hrits, Deputy Chairman of BEROC, believes.

According to economists, whatever the make-up of the government may be, it will be impossible to avoid the recession this year.

"Unless the miracle comes, the GDP growth is impossible this year. If the drop of the GDP stops at 1.5-2% this year, it will be a success. It is hardly possible to reduce the decline by less than 1.5%," financial analyst of Alpari Vadzim Iasub says.

Given the inevitability of the recession and the lack of professional personnel in the government, the expert considers the resignation of the government hardly possible in the near future.

"The dramatic staff reshuffling is unlikely to happen, because the bench is empty. There are no specialists who could change people in the economy. It is the situation when there are a lot of loyalists, but lack of professionals. So, despite poor performance of the economy, we can hardly expect a serious reshuffle," Vadzim Iasub believes.

The resignation of the government in the current economic situation is a senseless step.

"The government will not be resigned. Another thing we can expect changes in state administration bodies, optimization of the number of employees of the state apparatus, and, only then the reshuffle is possible", Heorhi Hryts believes.

The administrative reform was announced during the All-Belarusian People's Assembly in June. By the way, in 2012-2013 in order to "stimulate a highly efficient labour of civil servants" the number of state apparatus was reduced. However, the economy did not feel the difference...

Dzmitry Zayars, Naviny.by

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