Three Prigozhin's Mutiny Objectives

To be continued.

A week after the sensational events in the deep rear of the Russian Federation, we still have not received a reliable answer to the question: What was it?

Different informed people, as well as those who pretend to be informed, unanimously prophesy that this story is not over yet and it will continue in a few months. That is, Prigozhin's march should be perceived not as a single event, an incident or an occurrence, but as part of a wider process. As a fragment of the overall picture, and not as a separate picture. The characters in it are also not as separate and self-sufficient as people believe.

Everyone will agree that the performance of the Wagner group was not spontaneous but well prepared in advance, planned and implemented in a military way. Prigozhin has been preparing the informational background of his conflict with the Russian MoD and personally with Shoigu and Gerasimov for a very long time, gradually increasing the emotional tension and the rate of turmoil. The dramaturgy of this conflict ultimately provided for a direct clash, that's why this story looks natural and although unexpected for many.

There are variances not because of the beginning but because everything ended suddenly. Because at the crucial moment of the mutiny, the main rebel suddenly left the stage. Several explanations have been proposed for this, from the rational - the rebel realized that the actual forces were not enough to take Moscow, to the conspiracy theory - the accomplices of the rebellion in Moscow betrayed the rebel, and the irrational - the rebels suddenly saw the light and realized that great bloodshed would destroy Russia.

All these explanations are based on the fact that Prigozhin and his Wagnerites are an independent and self-governing force, which was forced to rebel due to the circumstances. Of course, all of us have the right to believe in this... Or not to believe and look for answers in the broader context of well-known events and hidden processes. And propose another hypothesis that would have really explained this.

Most of all, in the events of June 24, we were interested in one suddenly appeared figure, Alexei Dyumin, one of those who negotiated with the rebels. Who is he? The current governor of the Tula region is known to the general public as a former personal bodyguard of Putin, an employee of the Federal Security Service (FSS). And if you look closer, you can find out that he led the Special Operations Forces (SOF) in 2014-2015 and even became a hero of Russia for the seizure of Crimea. Yes, yes, the "men in green", the SOF, and it was a special operation in Crimea.

The current leaders of Russia usually come from the special services, where, as you know, there are no former ones. Their way of thinking is conspiracy theories, and their mode of activity is special operations. Well, or "active measures" as a component. Therefore, it is not surprising that they still call the already one-and-a-half-year war with Ukraine a special operation, albeit a military one.

But what if Wagner's rebellion is an active measure within the framework of some kind of special operation?

Today's media space gave Prigozhin so many names - both the owner, and the founder, and the financier of the Wagner PMC, the leader and even the commander... But in fact, his role was different - a top manager, an organizer of business processes. A hired person, admitted to an intimate secret - information about the real owners and the custodian (guardian) of their wealth.

The fact is that the so-called Wagner Private Military Company is not private at all. The Wagner does not mean Prigozhin, it is the call sign of the real first commander - Dmitry Utkin, he is in the photo with Putin at a state reception in the Kremlin.

This unit was created back in 2013 as a separate structure. It was stuffed with military intelligence special forces officers and was trained at the Molkino training ground in the Rostov region. According to some information, this is the SOF training ground of the Main Directorate (former GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Consequently, this is an illegal special forces for covert operations, proxy wars and operations under a false flag, primarily outside the Russian Federation, so that the Russian state does not bear formal responsibility for these activities. Why did the conflict arise between the chief of the General Staff and the MoD in this case? Because the Main Directorate of the General Staff (military intelligence) is a separate state within a state. The SOF is a separate state in the state of the General Staff. Russian matryoshka is a structural model, where visible competition between departments is replaced by invisible one inside departments.

As you know, the SOF is a separate type of troops which includes information forces in addition to a pure power component, the special forces, for conducting IPSO (information-psychological operations). And here we recall the "troll factory" from Olgino, a town near St. Petersburg. It appeared simultaneously with the Wagner PMC - in 2014 - as the "Internet Research Agency", the control of which was later publicly acknowledged by Yevgeny Prigozhin. It was this unit that was accused of interfering in the US presidential election in 2016, and not only. Later, RIA FAN (Federal News Agency) was created on its basis, and the entire Patriot media holding (it was over after the rebellion).

Consequently, both Dmitry Utkin's Wagner PMC and Yevgeny Prigozhin's RIA FAN are all structures of the SOF of the Russian Federation. Therefore, negotiations with them were allegedly conducted by their former commander, Alexei Dyumin. But not only him... True, Lukashenka also participated in the negotiations, as he claimed, but his role was auxiliary, not decisive. One of the negotiators came up with the idea of taking Prigozhin and the Wagnerites out of Russian jurisdiction, so they involved Lukashenka. At the same time, there were reports of Putin's phone conversations with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and even Armenia (as the leaders of CSTO member states). Perhaps the request was the same.

We look at the SSO and see the FSB. The MTR forces can only be commanded by representatives of the special services. The Federal Protective Service (FPS) General Dyumin occupied both positions: he was the Deputy Chief of the GRU and the Commander of the SOF in 2014-2015. In 2015-2016, he was Deputy Minister of Defence and became a Colonel General.

Lieutenant General Alexander Matovnikov from the Alpha unit (FSB special forces) took his position at the SOF. He led the SOF from 2015 to 2018. He is Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the Russian Armed Forces today.

Also, there is the acting (since 2018) SOF commander, Major General Valery Flustikov, whose biography is generally shrouded in a curtain of secrecy. The military hardly knows him, so it can be assumed that he also comes from the FSB.

The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Nikolai Patrushev, is the real leader of the FSB (and the coordinator of the special services) today. His name is also mentioned among the negotiators with Prigozhin.

The "negotiators" are those who "saved Russia from civil war" and Putin's regime from a fast collapse. They are the main beneficiaries of the rebellion and its neutralization at the same time. This is similar to the business model of some "lawyers" - to create a problem and make money from solving it.

It looks like a really special operation. It doesn’t matter that the FSB (the head is also General of the Army Alexander Bortnikov) looks unattractive - the FSB was supposed to prevent the mutiny but failed... The goals of the special operation were more important than spots on the reputation of this department.

The objectives are clear when considering the target audiences and the results obtained.

The first objective of the special operation was Putin. It looks like he was really scared. Literally, a day later, Putin's political capital was significantly weakened and his image was hit at the very core. The strong leader, which began with the phrase “Let's kill the terrorists in the toilet”, ended. The leader is already perceived as old, weak and indecisive. But still alive.

The second goal is war, or the so-called military special operation. Special operation against the special operation - this is the current Russian political reality. Prigozhin put it clear and technologically launched on the air (information space) on the eve and during his rebellion (“active measures”). He indicated the unjustified, unreasonable nature of this war, which is described as a special operation supposedly by Shoigu with Gerasimov (the Ministry of Defence), and not the FSB with Putin. That is, Prigozhin's mutiny was aimed at delegitimizing the war in the public consciousness of Russians. The objective has not yet been achieved, but the question has already been raised.

The third objective is external. The Wagnerites methodically blocked military facilities in the direction of their advance towards Moscow during the mutiny. The Voronezh-45, a strategic aviation airfield near Borisoglebsk with storage of nuclear weapons also could be blocked. We do not know what really happened there, but the Western information space got really active. The shock wave was even reinforced by a tweet by former president Dmitry Medvedev, hinting at the seizure of nuclear weapons by bandits, and therefore a threat to the whole world, and not just the Kremlin.

The West reacted immediately. They even officially announced their contacts with the leadership of the Russian Federation on this matter. It is possible that the US influenced the negotiators (or rebels?) also. The purpose of this IPSO was to scare the West and call it into direct negotiations. The result is that the West is alarmed, but not yet scared enough.

Well, the general picture of this special operation, which will continue from one “active measure” to another, emerges as follows: a group of influential generals of the Russian special services realizes the futility of continuing the hot phase of the war with Ukraine and the hybrid or cold war with the West. The clumsy figure of Putin prevents the way out of the impasse. He is accused of war crimes and no one wants to negotiate with him and he also personally does not want to admit his mistake and he will continue the war as long as he can. He cannot explain to himself and to the Russians why so many people died.

Both during the war and during this special operation, it turned out that modern Russia - the Russian Federation - is not only unable to achieve its declared goals, but is also on the verge of collapse with the prospect of becoming a failed state. Not only the "African practices" of the Wagner PMC have come to its territory, but the process of "Donbassization" of Russia has begun.

Therefore, another armed rebellion of the Russian Federation may not be able to withstand. Putin will be removed from real power and forced to voluntarily give up symbolic power. But gradually, through the institution of a successor. And this can be problematic.

So this is definitely not the end. To be continued.

Volodymyr Horbach, Mirror of the Week