Southern Salient: Ukrainian Forces Create Conditions For Operational Encirclement Of Russian Groups

A military expert spoke about the situation on the Zaporizhzhia frontline.

Commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group of Ukrainian troops General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said that the Russians spent 60% of their resources on building the first line of defense in the South, and only 20% on the second and third. The armed forces of Ukraine have already broken through the first line of Russian defense on the Zaporizhzhia frontline.

How will events develop on the second and third lines? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with the co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center, First Assistant to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2005-2008), military expert Oleksiy Melnyk:

— It would be very imprudent of me to predict how events will develop in the next stage of the offensive. After all, as always, there are a lot of unknowns. There are estimates that indicate that the next lines of defense of the Russians will be less saturated with mines. Nevertheless, they can be more seriously strengthened by the so-called long-term “honeycombs” — concreted points. There is also information about a very complex line of trenches with underground passages and shelters.

The key issue now is the availability of reserves in the Russian Federation. First of all — human reserves. After all, the trench line itself, even for armored vehicles, does not pose a threat if Russian grenade launchers do not sit there with a certain density.

It is also reported that the Russian Federation is transferring elite units of its paratroopers from other directions. This indirectly indicates that the Russian Federation has no fresh forces. One section of the front is strengthened at the expense of the weakening of the other. I emphasize that these are all assumptions.

I will say this, there are both grounds for optimistic expectations, and there are more significant grounds for being cautious in forecasting.

— The Ukrainian army has widened the gap in the main defensive echelon of the enemy in the South. The infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the Russian defenses with “dragon's teeth” to the west of Verbove. What settlements are important for the further advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the southern front?

— If you look at the map, it is obvious that there is a conditional breakthrough of the first line. I say “conditional” because, again, estimates differ. That is, it is not a line that is drawn on the map. After all, it’s impossible to understand from the map what kind of terrain it is, what natural obstacles it has, and, most importantly, what I was talking about is how much all these lines of defense are protected by manpower and weapons of the Russians.

Now you can give estimates based on the picture that is on the big map. Now this breakthrough needs to be significantly strengthened on the flanks. Further, according to the classics of war: in the event of expanding the breakthrough zone and pushing the enemy back on the flanks, then the conditions are created in order to take into the operational environment those Russian groups that were, in fact, on the ledge.

This is not just, let's say, a graphic picture, but also a factor that, having entered the depths of the Russian defense, Ukraine simultaneously receives the ability to fire control of the logistics supply chains of those troops that remained at the forefront. At the same time, I also want to note that all this is happening too obviously. As a rule, the enemy tries to mislead. Here is who will outplay whom. Therefore, it is not clear whether the offensive will really develop in this particular sector, which is now clearly outlined.

As for settlements, there is an operational task. These are at least Tokmak, Melitopol and Mariupol. The general direction is the Crimea and the Azov coast. In what direction the offensive will develop further is hard to say. There is something that suggests itself as obvious. But what is obvious to us is also obvious to the enemy. Therefore, it is to be expected that it is there that they will prepare fierce resistance.

— According to some analysts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can go to Tokmak and take up the liberation of Melitopol. What strategic advantage will the liberation of these cities give the Ukrainian army?

— If we talk about Tokmak, then this is a transport hub. In any case, the closer Ukrainian artillery comes to the Azov coast, the Crimean peninsula, the greater the threat to Russian supply lines for troops.

The experience of last year, the successful operations on the right bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region, very clearly demonstrated the dependence of the ability of the Russians to keep the defense on the reliability of the continuity of logical supplies.