The Times: Russian Troops Could Be Near Kyiv Again

The date has been announced.

The West must step up its assistance to Ukraine, because if it falls, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's next target could be European countries — a worst-case scenario many governments are already considering.

Columnist Iain Martin wrote about this in The Times.

He notes that the war in Ukraine is not moving towards a “frozen conflict”, but “a nightmare scenario is becoming a reality.”

“It is July and the Russian army is at the gates of Kyiv. President Zelensky delivers an emergency broadcast to repeat his defiant words, first uttered in February 2022, that he does not need a ride out of Ukraine. No, he needs ammunition to stay and fight the Russians. If only the West had listened and done more when the brave Ukrainians were pleading for help, that might have made the difference. While the allies squabbled and the United States eventually provided another $60 billion in aid, as spring turned to summer, Putin’s troops broke through the lines in the south and east. Retreating Ukrainian forces were able only to slow the advance. When the Russians closed in on the capital, a new wave of refugees fled Ukraine seeking safety from incessant bombardment,” stated in the material.

Martin underlines that this is the nightmare scenario now being contemplated by western policymakers. Events are forcing military and civilian leaders in London, Washington, Paris and Brussels to map out the catastrophic collapse of Ukrainian forces denied the weapons and munitions they need.

According to him, contrary to the predominant view that this is a perpetual “frozen conflict”, with neither side able to win a decisive advantage, the front line is bitterly contested and there is a real risk of Ukrainian forces being pushed back.

If Ukraine is defeated, the author notes, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s next target could be European countries.The governments who support Ukraine most strongly are clearly worried and considering even the worst scenarios.

President Macron has clearly sensed the danger and is trying to steer the West towards a more muscular approach by raising the possibility of ground troops. Other countries, such as Germany, strongly object. When will the message be finally understood that peace for European populations is guaranteed only by strength? When Ukraine falls and Putin moves on to menacing the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden or Norway? No one who is a supporter of Ukrainian self-determination against Russian barbarism wants this nightmare scenario to come true. Yet the stakes are so high.

The author of the column mentioned the polling conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in January in 12 countries, which suggested that only 10 per cent of voters think Ukraine can win. Some 37 per cent thought that a compromise was most likely and 19.5 per cent thought that Russia would win in the end.

The columnist also notes that scenarios other than military defeat are available, of course. There could be a coup in Russia or a newly elected President Trump might seek to impose a ceasefire and de facto Ukrainian surrender.