Business Insider: Iran's Attack On Israel Could Be Bad For Russia's War In Ukraine

The Kremlin's plan can fall apart.

Iran's attack on Israel on Saturday is bad not only for the Middle East but also for Russia's war in Ukraine, Business Insider writes referring to the opinion of Michelle Grisé, a senior policy researcher at RAND, an American think tank.

“Although it has been argued that Moscow benefits from chaos in the Middle East — diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine — it stands to lose a great deal if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a wider war,” Grisé wrote.

Thus, she notes that Iran is now a critical military supplier to Russia. An Iranian “ghost fleet” has also been carrying Russian oil around the world since the war in Ukraine started, keeping Moscow's oil revenue flowing. But should Iran become embroiled in a wider conflict, it wouldn't be able to provide the same level of support to Russia.

“A broader regional conflict, particularly if it involves direct conflict between Israel and Iran, would limit Iran's ability to continue serving as a military supplier to Russia,” wrote Grisé.

Furthermore, “Tehran may demand more support when Russia has limited capacity to provide it,” she added.

Moreover, a broader Middle East conflict could boost China's clout in the region at Moscow's expense.

According to the expert, even though Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has still managed to position himself as a potential power broker in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war.

But Putin's plan could fall apart should the war spill over regionally, since Beijing is also jostling to play peacemaker.

“Russia would be especially sensitive to Chinese attempts to encroach on its influence in the Middle East,” Grisé wrote in her commentary.

Since Russia's heavily sanctioned economy is already reliant on China, it would be even more exposed to Beijing's whims should Moscow not be able to hang onto any shred of global influence it still has, the analyst believes.