Leanid Zaika: The dollar should have cost more than 4500 rubles

Belarus has lost more than a half of the currency proceeds, economists say.

The National Bank of Belarus plans to reduce the Belarusian ruble fluctuation band against the currency basket to ±5%. This statement was made by chief banker Pyotr Prakapovich, “Zavtra Tvoey Strany” reports.

Former board director of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich doesn’t share Pyotr Prakapovich’s optimism.

“Prakapovich probably thinks the reserves will increase, volume of export will grow by 10%, economy will develop rapidly, and we will receive $10 billion of foreign debts,” the economist notes.

According to him, Russia plans to liberalize the currency market while Belarus is going to impose tight control over the ruble rate.

Head of the Strategy analytical center Leanid Zaika notes that while the International Monetary Funds allocates some resourses to support the national currency, a certain “preservation” of the currency exchange rate is possible.

Stanislau Bahdankevich agrees with this opinion. But, according to the former National Bank head, the administrative interference with economy will harm export. The expert thinks the times of favourable economic conditions for Belarus – increase in oil products, potash, metal, and chemical products prices – have passed.

According to Pr Bahdankevich, the following conditions are necessary for the Belarusian ruble stabilization: minimal foreign trade deficit, 3–5% inflation, real production growth and GDP increase.

“But we don’t have this,” the former National Bank head concluded. “It is possible to restrain the rate, but devaluation of the national currency is inevitable next year. I refer to the trade deficit, which is growing, and decrease in currency proceeds by 40%, which will evidently affect the ruble exchange rate.”

Leanid Zaika emphasizes that if it hadn’t been for the “external support” of the Belarusian ruble, it would have exceeded 4500 rubles per dollar.

“How an economist can say about the national currency stabilization, if we have already lost more than a half of the currency proceeds? Statistics shows that we lose $750mln every month in trade with Russia. This is a fantastically negative result. So, we can’t expect any natural stabilization of the Belarusian ruble,” the expert told “Zavtra Tvoey Strany”.