Zaika: Russians won’t play against US

Can “gas” promises to Myasnikovich be a kind of Russia’s reaction to the US sanctions against the official Minsk?

During the visit to Moscow prime ministers of Belarus and Russia Mikhail Myasnikovich and Vladimir Putin have agreed that since 2012 Belarus will get Russian gas at a discount. The head of “Strategiya” analytical centre Leanid Zaika notes that this is the first year of the Customs Union, and calls the situation in the negotiation process a sensitive one.

“Now the position of Russia towards Ukraine is very important now. As the Ukrainian side is bargaining for more convenient terms, lower gas tariffs. As for the Belarusian side, August is the time of preliminary negotiations and promises. But strategically the situation can advance. The matter is, in the last quarter Russia will join the three branches and launch the Northern Stream. That is, the situation in the gas sphere in the area between Russia and Germany is changing. And some new situation is expected to be created there, and it would be clear that those who had gone the length of integration process with Russia will have an advantage. For Russia it is important to pressurize Ukraine now, to get everything they can. And to push it towards signing partner relations agreement or joining the Customs Union in the future. And Myasnikovich’s visit to Moscow looks as “good cop, bad cop” I this respect. Those who integrate with Russia expect certain preferences,” Zaika said to Radio Svaboda.

Could “gas promises” to Myasnikovich be a kind of Russia’s response to the US sanctions against official Minsk?

“According to logics, the US sanctions have long history and are related to a specific process. They are related to the evaluation of the situation in Belarus, where political freedoms and civil rights are subjugated, where authoritarian decisions and brutal actions exist. Properly speaking, Russia does not approve these things itself, and Russians will not play against the US in this issue,” the economist is convinced.