Lukashenka organises masquerade ball

The new officials appointed by Lukashenka are co-authors of the crisis in Belarus.

Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign and former political prisoner, talked to charter97.org to comment on the latest events of the outgoing year.

– Many things happened at the end of the year. Why did Lukashenka replace one puppet government by another one?

– The situation repeats the events of 2010-2011. Lukashenka shifts responsibility on the previous government. In late December 2010, Sidorski was dismissed. Now Miasnikovich has been dismissed. Results won't change. The year 2015 will be even more difficult.

– Are you surprised by the new composition of the government? Prime minister Kabiakou spent much time in Moscow.

– No, I wasn't surprised. It's not emotions. It is a well-thought decision of Lukashenka. Heads of the president's administration, the government and the National Bank are the people who either have held key government posts or have been deputy top officials in the last 15 years. We cannot say they don't bear responsibility for the latest crisis. On the contrary, it is deputy officials who have real power. Along with Lukashenka, these people are co-authors of the ongoing economic turmoil.

Lukashenka organised a masquerade ball. He removed dummy prime minister and National Bank chief Miasnikovich and Yermakova and gave their posts to their deputies.

Lukashenka doesn't have many people at his disposal, so no changes are expected. My forecast is that the year 2015 will repeat 2011, but the presidential elections give certain hopes for changes in the political situation in 2015-2016.

– The Belarusian ruble in fact fell 30%. Has it hit the bottom, in you opinion?

– I expected a devaluation to take place earlier, but Lukashenka took Mavrodi's advice and built the financial pyramid. The economy does not grow, GDP does not grow, but deposit rates were from 50% to 70%. Of course, it attracted money of Russian adventurists who were investing in the Belarusian banking system. But it is impossible to pay such dividends without changing the Belarusian ruble's exchange rate.

The crisis in Russia and Ukraine allowed us to suggest that the Belarusian ruble would be devalued. And it happened. But it is only the first display of the financial catastrophe in Belarus.

We remember that the five-year programme for 2011-2016 has been failed, though Lukashenka tries to forget about it. The new five-year plan for the country's social and economic development suggested an annual GDP growth of 10%. It was announced when we were in jail. Salaries and welfare of people were supposed to grow, too. But GDP growth was in fact 1-2% for four years, while salaries were doubled.

What we see now is the first display of the catastrophe caused by Lukashenka.

– Minsk holds talks with Moscow on financial aid. Will Putin give several billions to his “ally”?

– He won't. The budget of the Russian Federation for 2015 was cut by 10%/. Russia has enough of its own problems. It cannot solve Belarusians ones, too. Yes, there will be a play on allegedly big differences between Putin and Lukashenka to beg new loans from the IMF, but Russia won't be able to help.

Belarusians pay for the lack of political and geopolitical activity. The “happiness” called the “Eurasian customs union” creates problems for Russians, Belarusians, Kazakhs and Armenians. There's no crisis on the western side of the Bug river. The situation in Poland is stable. It is stable in Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. It is only the former USSR countries that were hit by the crisis.

Belarusians missed their chance to live how people in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Germany live. And they pay for it. The statement by the new prime minister of Belarus that his goal is to reduce the impact of the global crisis is a lie. Only the countries of the Customs Union are in crisis.

– How does Lukashenka plan to carry out the presidential election in these conditions? Can he cancel them?

– Lukashenka cannot cancel the elections. He will feverishly look for money in all places possible. We will see him chaotically visiting all countries of the world.

But the elections will be held amid economic crisis. This is the reality.

Lukashenka, who has been in power for many years, can afford certain tricks that annoy Putin. Many analysts and politologists, from Brzezinski to Pavlovsky, forecast earlier that Russia would change the ruler in Belarus. It can coincide with the so called elections or happen just after them.

– What strategy should opposition have in these conditions?

– Belarus is at the beginning of the transformation of power and the alternative part of society. Belarusian society will begin to move. Belarus will wake up after its years long sleep. The crisis is regional. It resounds with the internal crisis. There are no easy solutions.

The truth is that while Russia was accepting the global political rules, the West was helping it with loans and technologies. But after Putin's crazy actions in Ukraine the West made a decision to sharply reduce aid to Russia.

We will see very dynamic events in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in 2015. I don't think the old opposition will be able to answer challenges properly. New leaders and new groups will appear.

– Even websites, the last sources of information, are blocked in Belarus. Will Belarusians protest?

– Open protests are unlikely as long as the political structure relying on the repressive machinery exists, but external events will trigger changes and dynamic processes in Belarus. Lukashenka won't establish good relations with the West if websites are blocked. The Internet is a symbol of freedom for political elites, journalists and civil society in the West.

The West is ready to make concessions to Lukashenka due to geopolitical troubles, but it seems impossible while websites are being closed and blocked. It will deepen the economic crisis in Belarus and break the state machinery of the dictatorial type.

Photo: radikal.ru